农村相对贫困家庭生计脆弱性测度、形成机理与消减政策优化研究

党的十九大提出的“扶弱”民生目标与十九届四中全会提出的“建立解决相对贫困的长效机制“目标表明，2020年后农村减贫将更加重视相对贫困治理。我国相对贫困人口规模较大，由于其抵御风险的生计资本、生计决策与能力脆弱而很容易滑入绝对贫困状态，加大返贫风险和贫困代际传递的概率。可以说，消减相对贫困家庭生计脆弱性是从源头上阻断绝对贫困、防止返贫和贫困代际传递的关键。因此，本研究立足于生计脆弱性的理论前沿，形成“理论逻辑→现状测度→实证检验与机制推导→经验借鉴→对策响应”的逻辑主线，从农村相对贫困家庭生计脆弱性形成机理-消减机理分析出发，揭示减贫政策对农村相对贫困家庭生计资本与生计决策的作用过程，把握其传导机制与规律，进而借鉴国际经验，提出相应的政策优化思路和建议，为建立解决相对贫困的长效机制从而实现稳定脱贫、防止返贫和阻断贫困代际传递的目标提供学理基础、经验支撑和良策建议。

The goal of "helping the relatively poor" proposed at The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the goal of “eliminating relative poverty" proposed at The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee indicate that poverty governance will pay more attention to the reduction of relative poverty in the new era. There is a large group of Chinese farmers in relative poverty, whose situation are vulnerable to transform to absolute poverty. Protecting the livelihood of families in relative poverty can radically eradicate absolute poverty, stop it from being passed to the next generation and prevent farmers from returning to poverty. Based on the theoretical analysis on livelihood vulnerability of families in relative poverty, this research will construct an index system to measure livelihood vulnerability of families in relative poverty and analyze the formation mechanism and elimination effect of livelihood vulnerability based on the quantitative tests. Referring to experiences of other countries, poverty governance should emphasize precaution, power, participation and service. This research will also improve the current policy on eliminating livelihood vulnerability and propose alternative anti-poverty plans and suggestions.