基于数据包络分析的碳排放配额配置及驱动因素分解研究

现阶段我国生态文明建设正处于压力叠加、负重前行的关键期，如何打好以碳减排为重心的蓝天保卫战，成为提升我国生态文明、建设美丽中国的关键所在。为了减少碳排放，实施科学客观的环境绩效评价、碳排放配额配置和碳排放的驱动因素分解研究很有必要。本项目拟以数据包络分析方法为基础构建新的环境绩效评价方法，并基于此开展碳排放配额配置及碳排放驱动因素分解研究。首先，针对简单系统、非循环网络系统和循环网络系统建立符合物质守恒原理的环境绩效评价方法；其次，以环境绩效为参考建立决策者有限理性时碳排放配额配置方法；然后，基于环境绩效建立综合型碳排放驱动因素分解分析方法，挖掘碳排放的关键技术经济驱动因素；最后，将上述理论研究成果应用于我国交通运输业碳减排工作中，为其碳减排提供有价值的决策信息。相关成果既可丰富环境绩效评价和碳排放配额配置与驱动因素分解的理论研究，也可为我国碳减排工作提供实践指导。

Currently, China's ecological civilization construction is in a critical period of superimposed pressure and heavy load. How to fight the blue sky defense battle with carbon emission reduction as the focus, has become the key to improving our ecological civilization and building a beautiful China. In order to reduce carbon emissions, it is necessary to carry out scientific and objective environmental performance evaluation, quota allocation of carbon emissions, and decomposition analysis on the driving factors of carbon emissions. This project intends to build a new environmental performance evaluation method through data envelopment analysis technique, and then based on the environmental performance evaluation, conduct quota allocation of carbon emissions, and decomposition analysis on the driving factors of carbon emissions. First, this project will establish an environmental performance evaluation method for simple systems, acyclic network systems, and cyclic network systems, which conforms to the materials balance principle. Second, this project will use environmental performance as a reference to establish a carbon emission allocation method for decision makers with limited rationality. Then, it will establish a comprehensive decomposition analysis method for the driving factors of carbon emissions based on environmental performance, and explore key technical and economic driving factors. Finally, this project will apply the above theoretical research results to the transportation industry in China, providing valuable decision-making information for the industry's carbon emission reduction. Relevant achievements can not only enrich theoretical research on environmental performance evaluation, quota allocation of carbon emissions, and decomposition analysis on the driving factors of carbon emissions, but also provide practical guidance for the carbon emission reduction in China.