我国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹。但人和自然关系出现严重不协调。本项研究拟对影响乃至决定国民经济增长的资源供给、水土资源保障、环境和生态系统承载力以及建立在这些因素之上的发展模式等进行分析，揭示经济增长与支撑系统之间的相互关系。阐述未来经济增长率可能的方案（高速或中速）对支撑系统（各主要因素）的最低要求，并对中国及各地区不同发展阶段的环境状态和发展状态作出诊断和预警。向政府和学术界提出：在未来中长期内，我国及主要地区应当期望多高的长期经济增长率；主要支撑系统因素如何得到可持续的利用和保护；如何实施“未来地球”框架文件等。在此基础上，总结关于发展与环境之间耦合和相互作用的过程及特点，揭示地球表层系统变化的驱动力和“人-地系统”动力学的基本内涵。这项研究，是实现国家可持续发展的一个“工程”，是对“未来地球”框架文件作出响应的一次实践。既有重要理论意义也同时具有明显的实际意义 。

China’s economy has experienced a rapid development period, which caused a more and more disharmony relationship between human and nature. This project will firstly explore the interaction relationship between economic growth and the support systems of economic growth by analyzing the characteristics of support systems of economic growth, including the impact factors and even decisive factors of economic growth (e.g. resources and energy purveyance, soil and water resources indemnification, environment and ecosystem carrying capacity, etc), the industry growth potential and development model. Secondly, this project will expound possible scenarios of economic growth rate(e.g. high-speed or medium-speed) in the future and the minimum requirements of this growth rate to the support systems, and then make early diagnosis and warning on the environment and economy with different development period in the provincial and national level of China. Thirdly, we will put forward some suggestions to the government and academia from the following aspects: 1) What will the economic growth rate be expected to be, based on their support system in the provincial and national level of China in the future one decade or two decades? 2) How to protect and use the main factors of support systems in sustainable way? 3) What suggestions should be given to implement “Future Earth” framework document? Finally, on the basis of in-depth practice research, we will summarize the interaction process and characteristics of the regional development and environment, and reveal the basic meaning of human-earth system dynamics and the driving force of earth's surface system changes. This project has great theoretical significance and practical implication for achieving the target of national sustainable development and replying the “Future Earth” framework document.