人类活动和自然变率对西北太平洋台风天气尺度特征长期趋势的影响及机理研究

台风的天气尺度特征与台风灾害密切相关，探索台风天气尺度特征长期趋势及物理成因至关重要。研究表明，过去几十年西北太平洋台风最大强度（LMI）位置有北移趋势，台风移速有减慢趋势。这将使我国受到更大的台风威胁。然而，这些变化背后的物理成因尚不明确。本项目拟利用最新的观测和模式资料，结合统计分析、动力诊断和数值模拟等方法，阐明西北太平洋台风LMI位置和移速的趋势特征，弄清区域大尺度环境对台风LMI位置和移速的影响，在此基础上，揭示人类活动和自然变率对台风LMI位置和移速趋势的影响、机理及相对贡献。本项目的预期研究成果，将有助于增强对气候变化背景下台风天气尺度特征长期变化的新认识，为我国防灾减灾提供科学依据，具有重要科学意义和实际应用价值。

The synoptic-scale characters of typhoon are closely connected to its disasters. Thus, it is critically important to explore the long-term trends of typhoon synoptic-scale characters. Previous studies show that during the past decades the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of typhoon over the western North Pacific is shifted northward and typhoon translation speed is slowing down, which will increase the threaten of typhoon to our country. However, the physical mechanisms underlying these changes are still unclear. Incorporating the newly released observational and model datasets, and the statistical, dynamical and numerical analysis method, the goals of this project are to clarify the long-term trend of typhoon LMI position and translation speed, reveal the impacts of large-scale environments on typhoon LMI position and translation speed, uncover the influence and relative contribution of anthropogenic activity and natural variability on typhoon LMI position and translation speed. The successful implementation of this project will provide new knowledge of the long-term change of typhoon synoptic-scale characters under climate change, and provide scientific basis for disaster prevention. Therefore, this project has great scientific significance and practical application values.