积极财政政策的经济效应—基于1998年-2004年项目级长期建设国债投资数据的研究

本项研究，拟利用独特的项目级1998年-2004年长期建设国债投资数据，从不同维度对中国第一轮积极财政政策的经济效应展开研究。该数据库记录了7年间8643亿国债资金分配到约5万个投资项目的基本信息。基于数据库提供的丰富信息，本项研究，一是结合相关政府文件、实地调研，采用计量方法研究哪些因素影响国债资金在不同县市间的分配，地方配套资金对于地方财政的运行影响如何；二是从县、市层面寻找国债投资项目导致的外生财政冲击，采用微观计量识别策略计算中国的地区财政乘数；三是以农网改造项目为例，结合其他农户调查、企业调查数据库，从农户和企业视角研究国债投资项目的微观影响。项目研究，与国际学界近十年来的努力方向一致，有助于从微观视角深化对积极财政政策的运行机理和实施效果的认识，是对新中国发展历程中重大宏观调控政策的回顾性量化历史研究；在实践价值上对于制定实施好积极财政政策也有借鉴意义。

Using a newly available project-level data on long-term construction treasury bonds investment from 1998 to 2004, this study evaluated the economic effects of China’s first round of activist fiscal policy from different dimensions. This dataset records basic information on the distribution of 864.3 billion treasury bonds to about 50,000 investment projects over 7 years. Based on the rich information provided by the database, this paper studied the following three issues: first, combined with government documents and field research, we identified the factors that affect the distribution of treasury bonds investment among different counties and cities, and how the local supporting funds affect the operation of local finance; Second, seeking for the exogenous shock that caused by treasury bonds investment from county and city levels, and use the micro-econometric identification strategy to calculate China’s regional fiscal multiplier; Third, taking rural network transformation project as an example, combined with other farmer and enterprise survey databases, studied the micro-impact of bonds investment. Consistent with international research trends in the past decade, project-level research helps to deepen the understanding of the operating mechanism and implementation effects of activist fiscal policy from a micro perspective, and is a retrospective quantitative history research on China’s major macro policies in the last 70 years; It is also of great significance for the formulation and implementation of China’s activist fiscal policy.