区域能源消费的多介质生态风险评估：以海峡西岸经济区为例

能源消费活动通过排放大气污染物等途径，对区域生态安全构成威胁。开展能源消费生态风险评估是更系统和全面制定区域能源发展策略的基础。本研究以2000-2018年期间海峡西岸经济区大气、水体、土壤三种环境介质作为研究对象，采用LEAP模型模拟和预测海峡西岸经济区不同能源发展情景下大气污染物的排放量，采用Models-3/CMAQ模型方法模拟区域能源消费过程中大气污染物的迁移转化过程，分析不同区域大气污染物空间异质性特征；构建大气污染的多介质生态效应分析模型，阐明大气污染物对不同环境介质的定性和定量影响机理；进而，在2019-2030年能源消费导致的不同环境介质生态风险强度和发生概率预测的基础上，构建海峡西岸经济区多介质生态风险评估和预警模型。将生态系统服务作为生态风险评价终点，架起学者与决策者之间沟通的桥梁，衔接生态风险评估理论与实际管理需求，为区域能源规划和生态环境管理提供新的思路与方法。

Energy consumption activities pose a threat to regional ecological security by emission of air pollutants and et al. Assessment of the ecological risks of energy consumption is necessary for a more systematic and comprehensive formulation of regional energy development strategies. In this study, three environmental media, atmosphere, water and soil in the West Strait Economic Zone during the 2000-2018 period were studied. LEAP model is used to simulate and predict the emission of air pollutants in different energy development scenarios, and Models-3/CMAQ is used to simulate the process of air pollutants migration and transformation during regional energy consumption, and analyze the spatial heterogeneity of air pollutants in the West Strait Economic Zone. A multi-medium ecological effect model for air pollution is constructed to elucidate the qualitative and quantitative mechanism of atmospheric pollutants on different environmental media. Then, based on predicting the ecological risk intensity and occurrence probability of different environmental media because of energy consumption during the 2019-2030 period, we build a model to assess multi-media ecological risk and make early warning in the West Strait Economic Zone. We use ecosystem services as the end point of ecological risk assessment, through which a bridge of communication between scholars and policy makers will be set up, linking the theory of ecological risk assessment and the actual management needs, providing new strategies for regional energy planning and ecological management.