公共政策的实施效果是评判国家治理能力的一个重要标准，如何使农户有效接受农村公共政策是亟待解决的重大科学问题。而农户个体风险研判是解决该科学问题的关键。本课题首先运用Holt-Laury实验机制，对不同地区农户的风险偏好采取支付实际货币的方式进行实验，测算不同地区农户的风险偏好系数，然后运用区间数据回归等方法分析不同风险偏好农户的自身、地理、环境、社会属性，并探究不同风险偏好农户对公共政策的响应机理。其次，从政策制定、实施者的角度在时间、空间、纵向和横向多维度运用改进的集值—层次分析法对其带给农户的风险进行测算。最后，将农户风险偏好与公共政策实施对农户产生的风险进行拟合匹配，设计不同风险偏好农户与公共政策双向耦合的机制，并提出优化公共政策的建议。本课题数据来源于2005-2014年在我国北方地区30县90村随机抽样获取的3266户样本农户所构建跟踪调查数据库的基础上进行的实验研究。

One of the most important standards to evaluate the national governance ability is to guarantee the implement effect of public policies. Thus, how to ensure active acceptance by rural households is a vital and urgent research issue and risk preferences of farmers is essential part of the explanation and breakpoint of this issue. This project firstly used the Holt-Laury mechanism to calculate the risk preference parameters of farmers from different research areas through paying money to them. Then, the interval-regression method would be used to analyze farmers’ individual characteristics, geography, natural environment and demography attributes and help us to explore the response mechanism of farmers to public policies. Moreover, based on the opinions made by policy-makers, policy-executors, policy-supervisors and relevant experts in this field, their cognitions on the risk exposed to farmers by involving in the public policies will be estimated through set-valued & analytical hierarchy method. At last, we will interconnect the risk preferences of farmers and the cognitions of risks from governors and further build a new framework to match the farmers of different risk preferences with certain policies, which could help to enhance the present implementation process of public policies. Since our research team already construct a database incorporating 3266 rural households from 90 villages in north area of China, the experiments will be implemented in a random sample from this database.