黄河流域水-肥-粮系统耦合特征及其对气候变化的响应

在区域尺度下研究水-肥-粮耦合系统的时空演变规律并探索其对气候变化的响应机制是农业水科学的难点问题，然而当前研究缺少在区域尺度对这一耦合系统的深入刻画，未能全面反映这一复杂系统的互馈规律及对气候变化的响应。本项目拟以黄河流域水-肥-粮耦合系统为背景，基于大尺度作物模型PEPIC，构建适宜黄河流域的水-肥-粮耦合系统模拟模型，解决流域尺度水-肥-粮耦合系统研究的技术难题。以作物用水强度和化肥施用强度为纽带，阐明黄河流域水-肥-粮系统的耦合特征及其时空演变规律。结合新一代气候模式数据，探索未来气候变化对黄河流域水-肥-粮耦合系统的影响机制并识别其关键的气候影响因子，构建基于灌溉和施肥的气候变化应对措施空间，最终制定流域尺度气候变化影响的应对方案。通过厘清黄河流域水-肥-粮耦合机制及其对气候变化的响应规律，为黄河流域农业高质量发展与生态保护提供理论依据和科学支撑。

Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics of water-nutrient-food interactions and exploring their responses to climate change at reginal levels have been a scientific challenge in agricultural water research. However, previous researches merely conducted a comprehensive study on revealing the interacting mechanism of this complex coupling system regionally. In this proposed project, the Yellow River basin was selected as the study area. Based on the large-scale grid-based crop model PEPIC, a local-suitable simulation model related to water-nutrient-food system for the Yellow River basin will be developed. This project will determine the characteristics of the water-nutrient-food interactions in the Yellow River basin and their spatiotemporal changing patterns based on agricultural water use intensities and nutrient application intensities. By combining new-generation climate model outputs, impacts of future climate change on the water-nutrient-food interactions and the major influential climatic factors will be identified in the Yellow River basin. Finally, regulation strategies related to irrigation and fertilization will be put forward for mitigating the impacts of climate change. The results derived from this project are expected to provide detailed and sound scientific supports towards high-quality agricultural development and ecology protection in the Yellow River basin.