外部不确定性对中国出口贸易的影响机制与微宏观治理研究

本课题着眼于当前中国企业所面临的外部不确定性增强的事实，在科学界定和测度不确定性基础上，突破既有基于外部冲击事件分析的局限，研究具有常态特性的不确定性与中国出口波动的关系。首先从宏观视角研究不确定性与中国总量出口波动的数量、因果和系统关系。然后通过对总量波动的分解下沉到企业出口行为层面，识别宏观总量波动的微观来源，打通总量波动与企业出口动态之间的关联。基于实物期权理论，将风险态度作为企业异质性的新维度，研究不确定性环境下企业的出口决策行为，并通过对企业四维度（企业-产品-市场-时间）出口关系的的分解，识别企业出口波动的来源，从企业层、产品层和市场的扩展和集约等多重边际视角洞悉不确定性对企业出口的冲击机制。基于以上研究，从内外互济、多样化、踏脚石试验等微观企业视角以及融资支持、产业政策、出口信保等宏观视角提出中国对冲外部不确定性的宏微观治理措施，以缓解出口波动，从而达到稳定出口的政策诉求。

Motivated by the fact that Chinese firm is suffering from rising uncertainty around the global economy, this project firstly defines and measures the uncertainty scientifically, then identifies the linkage between the regular uncertainty and the export volatility from China, which extend the drawback that only focus on external shock events(like financial Crisis) in previous research. Part I investigate the statistical causal and systematic relationship between Uncertainty and China’s Export Volatility by constructing cross country panel data on stock market volatility as proxies for the second moments of business conditions. As an extension, we decompose the aggregate volatility into disaggregated to identify the sources, which leads our analysis in the anatomy of firm’s exporting behavior. Basing on the theory of real options, the project try to find the effects of uncertainty shocks on export decision with heterogeneous risk preference in firms. the analysis throw additional effort on the multiple margins in the perspective of firm, commodity, destination. Finally, we raise the hedging strategy to external uncertainty for the exporting firm including the mutuality between export and selling domestically, export portfolio, steppingstone experiment, value-added upgrading, external financial support, industrial policy. Adopting these strategies would smooth the export volatility of firms and stabilize the aggregated export for China.