西北干旱区典型流域极端气候与水文过程相互影响机制的模拟研究

全球变暖背景下极端气候和水文过程变化关系到西北干旱区生态安全和社会发展，是重要的科学问题。然而，以往研究都将气候要素作为水文过程的驱动因子，不考虑水文过程对气候的反馈，从而无法对气候变化背景下西北干旱区水资源变化有更完整的科学认识。本项目将针对西北干旱区典型流域（艾比湖流域、博斯腾湖流域），根据1965年以来的气候和水文观测等多源资料，统计极端气候和水文过程的长期变化特征；利用大气—水文双向耦合的WRF-HYDRO模式，在参数率定和调优的基础上开展1979-2019年气候评估和敏感性试验模拟，诊断气候、极端气候与水文过程相互影响的机制；采用偏差校正后的CMIP6结果，开展西北干旱区大气—水文双向耦合的高分辨率模拟，预估未来极端气候的变化趋势及不确定性，评估水文过程的响应和潜在风险。研究结果将为西北干旱区提供更合理的极端气候和水文预估结果，为水资源长期调控及气候变化应对提供科学依据。

The variations of extreme climate and hydrological processes under global warming are critical to the ecological security and social development of the arid regions in the Northwest China. However, most of the previous simulation studies have used meteorological factors as forcing of hydrological processes and ignored the feedback, thus failing to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the water resource changes under climate change in arid regions of the Northwest China. The proposed project will investigate the features of extreme climate and hydrological processes based on multi-source data such as meteorological and hydrological observations since 1965, and conduct systematic atmosphere-hydrological coupling simulations using the WRF-HYDRO model on the basis of model tuning to reveal the physical mechanisms of the interactions between extreme climate and hydrological processes; high-resolution simulations under different emission scenarios will be conducted with the bias-corrected CMIP6 results, and the future change of extreme climate and hydrological processes, as well as the potential risks will be quantitatively analyzed for the arid regions of the Northwest China. This study will provide more reasonable results for extreme climate and hydrological projection, and provide a scientific basis for long-term water resource management and climate change adaptation in the arid regions of the Northwest China.