MJO在海洋性大陆上传播的模拟和预测

热带季节内低频振荡（MJO）是在全球各个纬度地区包括东亚地区的天气和气候都有着重要影响的大气现象，其在东南亚海洋性大陆上传播的这一过程是目前亟待解决的科学难题。为此，项目提出基于S2S资料分析和WRF数值试验，包括实际季节内低频振荡个例的敏感性试验和理想化模型试验，深入探讨MJO下海洋性大陆的热带岛屿的对流特征和形成机理，将重点考察日变化、海陆热力差异、地形和低频振荡背景风场等因素之间的关系，以提高对流形成机制及其相关动力学和热力学过程的认识，从而对全球模式和区域高精度模式季节内低频振荡的模拟和预报的提供指导和进一步发展方向。

Tropical intraseasonal oscillation (MJO) is a weather phenomenon of global significance, impacting weather and climate of all latitudes. A key scientific issue in the MJO is its propagation over Maritime Continent (MC) in the Southeast Asia. The proposed project seeks to improve scientific understanding of convection - the key process during the MJO passage of MC. The project consists of three components. First, a suite of high-resolution numerical experiments of selected MJO cases passing the MC will be conducted to assess the importance of topography and land-sea contrast. Second, idealized experiments will be used to further elucidate underline mechanisms of diurnal cycles over various islands. Finally, the WMO/S2S hindcast dataset will be analyzed to understand the prediction skill and bias of the MJO over MC. The projects will yield improved understanding of dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with tropical convection and MJO. Thorough these activities, the project will benefit simulation and prediction of MJO in global numerical model and regional models.