行程时间可靠度是衡量交通运输系统性能的重要指标，在交通规划、智能交通管理等领域有着广泛的应用价值。针对以往研究忽视交通流breakdown特性、缺乏对行程时间不可靠机制研究的问题，本项目结合交通流跟驰理论和交通心理学等理论，以交通流breakdown发生和时空演化过程为核心，研究由各种扰动因素和交通流随机性共同作用引起行程时间不可靠的内在机制，提出基于交通流breakdown的行程时间可靠度建模框架。在此基础上研究交通流breakdown概率模型和行程时间变异性模型，结合交通扰动在网络中的传播规律，建立路径行程时间可靠度模型，并提出行程时间可靠度与路网规划设计和交通运行管理的反馈机制框架。通过实测交通数据标定模型关键参数，利用结构标定和预测标定方法验证模型有效性。本研究提出了行程时间可靠度建模的新视角和新方法，为快速路设施规划和设计、交通运行管理策略的制定提供理论依据。

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators for the performance of transport system and has a wide application in transport planning and intelligent traffic management system. Comparing with previous studies that commonly ignore traffic breakdown characteristics and are lack of explaining the mechanism of travel time unreliability, this project will study the mechanism and modeling of travel time reliability considering typical disturbance integrating car-following theory and traffic psychology. Firstly, with the analysis of occurrence, spatial-temporal evolution of traffic breakdown, the mechanism of travel time unreliability caused by various disturbances and stochastic nature of traffic flow is revealed. Based on which, the framework of considering traffic breakdown in the modeling of travel time reliability is presented. Secondly, based on the above mechanism explanation, the probability model of traffic breakdown (PB)and travel time variability model are studied. By analyzing the propagation rule of traffic disturbance in network traffic flow, route-level travel time reliability model is established, as well as a feedback framework of travel time reliability, network planning and design, and traffic management. Finally, real-detected data is used to calibrate the key parameters of the proposed models, and construct validity and predictive validity are applied in the validity of traffic breakdown model and travel time reliability model. This project proposes a new angle of view and new methods for the study of travel time reliability, and will provide a theoretical basis for the layout and design of expressway network infrastructures, and developing strategies of traffic operation and management.