供应链视角下粮食产区和销区利益协调政策的模拟与优化

粮食是一种机会成本较高的特殊商品，在工业化、城镇化进程中，粮食产区与销区的利益失衡现象日益加剧，如何制定粮食产销区利益协调政策，促进粮食产销合作，确保粮食区域供给安全，是一项十分迫切的重要课题。本项目研究从供应链视角出发，以国内多个典型的跨区粮食供应链为研究对象，以系统动力学作为政策模拟和分析工具，在分析不同模式下供应链成员成本收益状况的基础上，探讨粮食产区和销区之间在利益协调方面所存在的主要问题；在分析产销利益协调政策作用机制的基础上，设计利益协调政策备选方案；在构建粮食产销区利益协调政策模拟模型的基础上，确立粮食供应链成员理想利益分配基准，并应用政策模拟模型对利益协调政策备选方案进行评估和遴选。本项目研究不仅能够为政府有关部门制定粮食产销政策提供决策依据，而且也能够为粮食产销区利益协调政策的理论研究提供了新的视角和方法。

The grain is the special goods with high opportunity cost. With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the interest conflict between grain production (GP) regions and grain demand (GD) regions tends to be enlarged. How to design policy to coordinate interests of main GP regions and GD regions and therefore facilitate the close cooperation between GP regions and GD regions, is a emergent and crucial problem concerned with national grain security. From a perspective of supply chain, this project studies on the modes of typical trans-regional grain supply chain (TGSC). Firstly, the revenues and costs of the members of different TGSCs are investigated, after then the problem of benefit allocation of current TGSCs is expounded. Secondly, using the methodology of system dynamics, the policy alternatives are designed after analyzing the mechanism of the effect of policy upon the benefit allocation of the TGSCs, and then the simulation model of policy for coordinating interests of main GP regions and GD are established. Lastly, the index system for policy evaluation is created after developing the idea benefit allocation solutions for all typical TGSCs, and therefore we evaluate policy alternatives and select optimal polices against the index system for policy evaluation based on the simulation results of policy alternatives. The implementation of proposed project not only is helpful to construct decision support tool and provide credible decision basis for development of effective policy of coordinating interests of main GP regions and GD regions, but also provides new perspective and new approach for theoretical study on policy of coordinating interests of main GP regions and GD regions.