政府导向、信息有用性与企业资源配置：地方政府工作报告前瞻性信息的视角

本项目将前瞻性信息披露研究从企业层面拓展到政府层面，探讨政府导向的信息有用性和资源配置后果。中国“政府工作报告”披露的“当年工作安排”信息为政府导向测量提供了基础，本项目借助文本分析和机器学习方法，测量省/市级政府导向的具体性、异质性、积极性等信息特征，并通过识别信息内容测量高质量发展导向。探讨两个问题：（1）政府导向是否是有用的增量信息？分别检验投资者、信息中介（媒体、分析师）、高管对其的使用。（2）政府导向信息如何影响企业资源配置？分别从机制和效果上探讨，机制上从政策量化、政府对企业“奖/惩”等方面测量政府的“行”，检验政府是否“言”（政府导向）、“行”一致；效果上考察其对区域内企业系列资源配置及效率、区域间异地子公司配置等影响。本项目预期拓展前瞻性信息披露、政策不确定缓解以及政府行为影响企业资源配置的相关研究，也为地方政府导向调整、企业资源配置调整和机构投资者投资组合优化提供参考。

This project attempts to extend the research boundaries of forward-looking information disclosure from firm level to government level, and explore the information usefulness of government orientation and its impact on firm resource allocation. Based on the "Current Work Plan" in Chinese "Government Annual Reports",we use text analysis and machine learning method to measure the specificity, heterogeneity, positivity of provincial as well as municipal government orientation, and measure high-quality development orientation by identifying information topics. Based on the above, we will discuss two issues: (1) Dose the government orientation provide useful incremental information? We will test the use of government orientation by investors, information intermediaries (media and analysts), and corporate executives respectively. (2) How does government orientation affect firm resource allocation? We will discuss the channels and consequence respectively. In terms of channels, we will measure the government's "Deeds" from the aspects of policy quantification as well as government's "Reward” or "Punishment" to firms. Therefore we can test whether the government’s "Words" and "Deeds" are consistent.In terms of economic consequences, we will test the inter-regional and intra-regional firm allocation and its efficiency, and subsidiaries location decisions. The project is expected to expand the research on forward-looking information disclosure, mitigation of policy uncertainty as well as the impact of government behavior on firm resource allocation, and provide reference for local government orientation adjustment, firm resource allocation adjustment and institutional investor portfolio optimization.