西方现有研究一边倒地认为迅速增长的中国出口是造成他国经济失衡和就业困难的重要原因，一时之间，中国出口成为众矢之的，“中国冲击”、“中国综合症”的论断在国际上引起极大关注。本课题提出我们至少可以从两个角度重新检验这一论断，正确理解中国出口的国际影响。首先，现有研究在分析中国出口的影响时，没有考虑到各国国内的宏观因素，而国内宏观因素尤其是房地市场的繁荣放大了进口竞争的“就业损失”效果，控制房价因素后中国贸易对就业的影响下降至少一半。其次，贸易不是“单行线”，有进口也有出口，美国在大量进口的同时，出口也保持了强劲的扩张势头，在同时考虑进口和出口的一般均衡框架下，我们发现出口创造的大量就业大大抵消了进口竞争的“就业损失”效果。最后，在对贸易和全球化的国际影响有了全面而正确的认识之下，我们通过历史数据和国际经验分析，对新形势下中美贸易关系可能产生的新发展以及中国应采取的新战略，进行了定量分析和讨论。

International trade has become a focus of political debates around the world. Many studies in western countries claim that the surging imports from China (“China Shock”) has affected domestic economy negatively by reducing employment, income, and so on (“China Syndrome”). This project proposes to reconsider the effect of “China shock” in at least two ways. One is the “masking effect” of domestic macroeconomic factors, such as housing boom. The United States has experienced both housing boom and import boom in the 2000s. When housing boom is controlled, the effect of import competition found in the literature dropped by at least half and became insignificant in some cases. The other is that current studies focus on the job-reducing effect of imports, whereas much less is explored in the job-creating effect of exports. We propose to consider both imports and exports simultaneously in the analysis. In so doing we employ an instrumental variable regression analysis. We show that the negative effects of import competition are largely balanced out once the job-creating export expansion is taken into account. Last but not the least, based on the new understanding of trade and employment, we analyze the current China-US trade relation, the possible trade protection actions that the Trump administration might take, and the actions that the Chinese government can respond.