气候和土地利用变化对中国杜鹃花分布格局的影响研究

气候和土地利用变化是生物多样性丧失最主要的两个影响因素，特有物种分布区域狭窄，潜在受威胁而濒危和灭绝的风险更大。杜鹃花属这一长期被忽视的植物大属，特有种比例高达74%，许多物种面临严重的生存威胁，而哪些杜鹃花特有种在未来灭绝风险较大，具体的哪些区域将是需要进行就地保护尚不明确，迫切需要开展气候和土地利用变化对杜鹃花特有种分布格局的影响研究。本项目以野外调查与标本馆数据为基础，拟开展现实气候和土地利用情景下中国杜鹃花种特有种地理格局分析，量化气候和土地利用变化的影响的相对作用，模拟未来气候和土地利用变化多情景下中国杜鹃花特有种的分布和物种多样性格局的响应，评估单个物种的脆弱性和灭绝风险，以及杜鹃花特有种多样性的格局变化，拟提出亟需重点保育的物种对象和地理范围。本项目对探索未来中国特有植物多样性的地理格局和我国生物多样性保护工作具有重要的科学意义，也为实现杜鹃花的种群保护提供科学依据。

Climate and land use change are the two main factors of biodiversity loss. The endemic species which have narrow habitats would have high risks of extinction in the future. Rhododendron L, one of the biggest genera of plant, has long been overlooked. Over 74% of the Rhododendrons occurring in China are endemic species. A number of Rhododendron species are disappearing. However, which species and where should be protected in the near future is still ambiguous. Therefore, it is urgent to understand the effect of climate and land use change on the geographical pattern of Rhododendron. Based on the data of herbariums and field survey, this study will predict the effects of future climate and land use change on distribution and diversity pattern of endemic species of Rhododendron in China. Furthermore, we would evaluate the vulnerability and extinction risks of species, and the changes of geographical pattern of species diversity. Our results would show the specific species and area which need to be protected crucially. This study would provide theoretical guidance for the conservation of Rhododendrons, and be beneficial to understand pattern of endemic plant diversity，as well as manage biodiversity conservation under climate and land use change in the future.