Rogue Wave或Freak Wave是强烈的局域化波扰动，可由噪声形成，并且具有违反统计学理论规律的极高峰值振幅。人们已经在各种系统中观察到了Rogue Wave的存在，其中包括水波和最近发现的光波。然而，迄今为止，对于Rogue Wave的起源和物理机制科学家们尚未达成共识。本项目将从理论和实验方面采用光学测试平台来研究“空间Rogue Wave”的基本物理机制、前兆动力学，从而最终建立极端波事件的预测标准，实现对Rogue Wave的控制和预测。具体目标是：i）了解饱和与非互易的能量交换在Rogue Wave形成中的作用；ii）确定维度对于研究具有长尾统计特性的光波的意义；iii）确认极端波事件的前兆动力学，并提出预测标准。

Rogue or freak waves are intense localized wave perturbations that appear to form out of noise and have a statistically impossible peak amplitude. They have been observed in various systems, these including water waves and more recently in light waves. To date there is no consensus as to the origin and physical nature of rogue waves. This proposal centers on the use of an optical testbed to study basic rogue wave physics, precursor dynamics, and ultimately establish a level of predictability for extreme wave events. Specific goals are i) develop an understanding of the role of saturation and non-reciprocal energy exchange in rogue wave formation; and ii) establish the role of dimensionality in long-tail optical wave statistics. A more ambitious long term goal outcome is iii) the identification of energy-exchange patterns that are precursors to extreme wave events.