社会-生态耦合系统下洱海生态系统服务长期变化及相互作用关系

全球变化背景下，理解生态系统服务间的动态权衡/协同作用是维持生态系统服务可持续发展的关键。本项目拟选择云南大型高原淡水湖泊—洱海为研究对象，从历史演化的角度，开展洱海生态系统服务长期变化及动态相互作用研究。通过洱海南北湖区多沉积钻孔的古湖沼代用指标的高分辨率分析，结合监测记录和文献资料，重建近百年来洱海及其流域生态、环境、气候和人类活动变化序列；基于生态系统服务长时序代用指标的提取和千年生态系统服务评估体系，重建洱海鱼类供给、淡水供给、水质调节以及生物多样性维持等生态系统服务的长期变化过程；借助多种数理统计方法，分析生态系统服务的阶段性变化特征、以及各类服务间的权衡/协同关系。在综合对比分析的基础上，研究不同变化阶段服务对于社会发展的响应和反馈作用，从社会-生态耦合系统的视角阐明服务权衡/协同关系动态变化机制，为洱海生态系统服务预测和管理提供科学支撑。

In the context of global change, improved understanding of the interactions among ecosystem services (ESs) (that’s trade-off and synergy) is the key point to their sustainable development. In this project, we will take a historic approach to explore the long-term dynamics of ESs and their interactions in the large freshwater lake (Lake Erhai) of Yunnan Province. Sediment cores will be taken in the south and north part of Lake Erhai separately for chronology and multi-proxies analysis. Combined with the paleolimnological proxies, monitoring data, and archive records, the long-term trajectories of ecological-environmental-climate changes and human activities will be outlined. Also, the trends of typical ESs (include fish and freshwater provisioning services, water quality regulating service, and biodiversity supporting service etc.) in Lake Erhai will be reconstructed, with the reference to the ESs framework in Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. By multivariate statistical analysis, we will identify the periodical characteristics and the correlation of these ESs. Furthermore, we will analysis the controlling factors of the ESs and their feedback effects on the subsequent social drivers/managements. On the perspective of integrated social-ecological system, the dynamic interactions of ESs and their impacts on the further changes will be revealed. This research will not only contribute to the research of ESs interactions, but also have significant implication for future ESs prediction and regional ecosystem management.