中国—东盟博览会社会影响的测量模型与形成机制研究

Festivals and events are considered to be a booster to regional economic development, thus a great amount of researches have focused on assessing the economic impacts of festivals and events, while little attention to social impacts.Unlike economic impacts, social impacts of festivals and events can be difficult to measure objectively as many of them cannot be quantified, and they often have a differential effect on different members of the community. For this reason, social impacts are frequently examined through investigation of residents' perceptions of the impacts. However, little research has undertaken a systematic evaluation of these social impacts, and the aim of this research is to provide a framework within which to assess these impacts. Through 4 consecutive years' field research and questionnaire survey to China-ASEAN Expo, this research tries to develop and examine social impacts from China-ASEAN Expo, gauge the perception and the degree of support of the host residents, discuss the correlation between the perception of social impacts and the independent variables such as place of birth, gender, income, education and so on. Using a cluster analysis method, the research tends to identify the different resident clusters based on the perception of social impacts on hosting China-ASEAN Expo. And then discuss the formation mechanism of social impacts from festivals and events, put forward a nichetargeting and operational management strategies for the social impact from festivals and events. During the study, on one hand, trying to develop a research tool- - social impact assessment scale for festivals and events, further to regulate festivals and events research method; on the other hand, through the collection and analysis of basic data, discuss the formation mechanism of festivals and events' social impacts and ways based on reality to improve the social impact of festivals and events, then provide to relevant department for reference, win over more public support for the organizers to run the Expo, even for the local festivals and events career in the healthy, rapid and sustainable development.

节事活动被认为是地区经济发展的助推器，因此针对节事经济影响的研究受到了学界的重视，而对其产生的社会影响则关注很少。通过连续4年对中国-东盟博览会进行实地调研和问卷调查，构建并验证中国-东盟博览会社会影响评价尺度，测量主办地居民对中国-东盟博览会的感知和支持程度，探讨居民的出生地、性别、收入、学历等独立变量对居民节事社会感知的影响，开展基于中国-东盟博览会感知的主办地居民聚类研究，以及在此基础上探讨节事社会影响的形成机制，并提出有针对性和操作性的节事社会影响管理策略。在研究过程中，一方面试图开发研究工具- - 节事社会影响的评价尺度，进一步规范节事影响的研究方法；另一方面，通过基础数据的收集和分析，探讨节事社会影响的形成机制，以及基于现实的节事社会影响改善途径，以提供给相关部门进行决策参考，为主办方进一步办好博览会、争取更多市民支持，乃至为地方节事业的健康、快速和可持续发展。

节事活动持续时间短暂，但它对举办地所产生的社会影响和意义远大于活动本身。本课题通过连续4年对中国-东盟博览会社会影响的追踪调查，综合运用社会学、地理学、物理学等理论，对中国-东盟博览会的社会影响形成机制和节事活动的生命周期演变进行了深入研究。首先，通过引入物理学的磁场效应，构建出以主办城市和节事活动为磁极的区域空间磁场，并从时间变化的纵向维度，阐述了不同阶段节事活动社会影响的变化规律，结论表明，主办城市所处的发展阶段和环境对于节事活动的成功举办具有至关重要的作用，当节事活动的发生恰好与城市发展的小环境相吻合时，节事活动对城市的发展起到了“强心剂”的作用，反之，节事活动则起到“兴奋剂”的作用，药效过后，掩藏在华丽外表背后的是矛盾和社会不公平的逐渐累积和升温；其次，研究依托旅游地生命周期理论和愤怒指数理论，对节事活动的生命周期进行科学界定，并对处于不同生命周期的同类型节事活动进行横向对比，探究不同生命周期的同类型节事活动发展路径，研究表明，中国-东盟博览会处于政府主导型展会生命周期的发展阶段，广交会处于成熟阶段。从愤怒指数理论来看，中国-东盟博览会目前正处于“陶醉阶段”，而广交会则处于“厌烦阶段”。项目资助发表核心论文1篇，待发表两篇。培养硕士生7名，其中4名已经取得硕士学位，3名在读。项目投入经费34万元，支出27.0212万元，各项支出基本与预算相符。剩余经费6.9788万元，剩余经费计划用于本项目研究后续支出。

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