实物期权理论视角下东道国政治不确定性对国际新创企业创新的影响机制：基于中国的经验研究

既有IE文献主要关注跨国企业如何进入东道国市场并成功实施国际创业，而本课题则着力于探索进入新兴东道国后的国际新创企业如何在不确定情景下实现可持续创新。为此，课题组从实物期权理论的视角切入，在中国情景下考察基于地方官员更替的政治不确定性如何对国际新创企业创新产生影响。首先，在中国工业企业数据库基础上，课题组构建地方官员数据库和在华外企数据库，对政治不确定性等指标进行识别和测度。其次，课题组基于实物期权理论构建了东道国政治不确定性影响国际新创企业创新的理论机制，并藉此考察政治不确定性是否显著影响了国际新创企业的创新可能性、创新绩效和可持续性。接下来，课题组又从外部制度环境、企业特质和投资特性等层面剖析和检验政治不确定性影响国际新创企业创新的作用机制。最后课题组分析了国际新创企业如何在不确定情境下在区位选择、合法性策略和研发投资决策等方面进行决策优化，提升进入东道国后的创新绩效和创新可持续性。

The vast majority of International Entrepreneurship (IE) literatures mainly focuses upon the success of early internationalization period. How international start-ups sustain innovation advantage after entry into an emerging market with high political uncertainty is an important but unresolved question. Building on real options theory, we contend that political uncertainty arising from politician turnover dampens the innovation performance of new foreign subsidiaries due to information asymmetry. Firstly,We further develop a multi-level framework identifying contingent factors at environment (i.e., marketization & historical uncertainty),firm (i.e., international joint venture & political access) and investment levels （irreversibility and nonexclusiveness）that moderate the above relationship by reducing information asymmetry. Secondly, based on the theoretical framework we try to examine whether political uncertainty of host country has a significant effect on the innovation of international new ventures. Next, we try to analyze and test the mechanism of political uncertainty affecting the innovation of international new enterprises from three aspects: external institutional environment, enterprise characteristics and investment characteristics. In the end, our study sheds light on how international start-ups in an emerging market achieve sustainable post-entry innovation.