新冠肺炎疫情应对策略决策模型与理论研究

新冠肺炎，百年一遇，改变了全世界，也引发了很多决策争议。及时总结我国及世界各国的防控经验，开展应对策略决策模型及理论研究，有着重大价值和意义。申请项目拟：（1）针对疫情初期决策，比较中国遏制策略和美国缓解策略的短期、长期损益，验证短期内遏制策略占优、长期看缓解策略占优的假设；（2）针对疫情中期决策，研究新加坡等国家或地区从遏制策略调整到缓解策略的时机、办法和效果，为科学调整应对策略提供证据和方法支持；（3）针对疫情全程决策，综合运用卫生系统宏观模型、边界分析、力场分析、德尔菲等方法研究应对策略决策的影响因素和机制，构建决策模型，填补较低病死率（0.5-5%）直接传播类传染病应对策略决策的知识空白；（4）论证决策模型对于各个国家和不同病死率直接传播类传染病的普适性，形成新发重大直接传播类传染病应对策略决策理论。研究成果可为今后类似新冠肺炎传染病的应对决策提供循证依据和理论支持。

Covid-19 pneumonia has changed the whole world and triggered a lot of decision-making disputes. It is of great value and significance to timely summarize the prevention and control experience of China and other countries in the world and carry out the research on the decision-making model and theory of coping strategies. The proposed application will: (1) for the decision-making in the early stage of the pandemic, compare the short-term and long-term profits and losses of China's containment strategy and the U.S. mitigation strategy, and verify the hypothesis that the containment strategy is dominant in the short term and the mitigation strategy is dominant in the long term; (2) For the mid-term decision-making of the pandemic, study the timing, methods and effects of Singapore(other countries or regions ) ’change from containment strategy to mitigation strategy, so as to provide evidence and method support for scientific adjustment of response strategies; (3) For the decision-making of the whole-course of the pandemic, the methods of health system macro model, boundary analysis, force field analysis and Delphi were used to study the influencing factors and mechanisms of responding strategy decision-making, and to build a decision-making model to fill the knowledge gap of responding strategy decision-making of directly transmitted infectious diseases with a case fatality rate of 0.5-5%; (4) Demonstrate the universality of the decision-making model for directly transmitted infectious diseases in various countries and different mortality rates, and form the responding strategy decision-making theory of new major directly transmitted infectious diseases. The research results can provide evidence-based basis and theoretical support for the response decision-making of the infectious diseases similar to Covid-19 in the future.