农户生计转型对农业土地利用系统过程变化及其效应模拟研究——以洞庭湖区的沾溪流域为例

在乡村振兴战略下，如何通过农户生计策略调控，协调好区域粮食生产与环境效应之间的关系是中国农业可持续发展的关键。本项目选择湖南洞庭湖区的沾溪流域为案例研究区，通过农户调研，研究农户生计转型的驱动因素，分析农户生计转型轨迹。基于农户生计转型视角，利用“自下而上”的建模思想和复杂空间系统模拟方法，建立耦合智能体模型（ABM）、物质流分析（SFA）与改进的输出系数模型（IECM）的农业土地利用系统时空演变及效应动态模拟模型，系统研究农户生计转型对农业土地利用系统变化作用机制，全面分析其对区域内的粮食生产与环境效应的影响。并通过设定三种不同情景模式，模拟2021年至2035年沾溪流域内农业土地利用过程及效应变化，以揭示农户生计转型演变过程、演变机制、演变趋势和演变效应，为保障区域粮食安全，修正农户土地利用行为，降低农业环境风险，构建可持续利用的土地利用模式体系提供理论和方法支持。

Under the Strategy of Rural Revitalization, it is key for sustainable agricultural development in China to coordinate the relationship between regional food production and environmental quality through regulating farmers' livelihood strategies. This project will take the basin of Zhanxi River in the Dongting Lake of Hunan as a case study area. Through household survey method, it will study the driving factors of farmers' livelihood transition and will analyze the trajectory of farmers' livelihood transition. Using the "Bottom-up" modeling thinking and the simulation method of space complex system, a coupling model based on Agent-Based Model (ABM), Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) and Improved Export Coefficient Model (IECM) will be established. From the perspective of farmers' livelihood transition, the mechanism of agricultural land use system changed by farmers' livelihood transition will be studied systematically and the effects on regional food production and environmental quality will be analyzed comprehensively. Through stimulating process and effects of agricultural land use in the basin of Zhanxi River from 2021 to 2035 under three kind of different scenarios, the evolution process, mechanism, trend and effect of farmers’ livelihood transition will be revealed. This study may provide theoretical and methodological support for ensuring regional food security, correcting farmers' land use behavior and reducing agricultural environmental risks, and constructing a sustainable land use model system.