青藏高原东缘藏族农牧民对气候变化的适应及区域差异

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. While the implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. However, to date, such scenarios have not adequately examined, such as climate change adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we develop and apply a systematic mixed-methods to identify and characterize how climate change adaptation is taking place for the Tibetan Nationality in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is widely held to be highly vulnerable to future climate change and the eastern part of it is often cited as one of the most extreme examples. With this in mind we seek to identify entry points to integrate short- to medium-term climate risk reduction within development activities in this region, and explore adaptation strategies by focusing on the Tibetan Nationality in the face of climate change in the last 55 years (1958-2013). We selected three counties with similar culture background to compare the different adaptive behavior due to different lifestyle, in which Hongyuan County was selected as a representative type of pasturing area, Barkam County as a type of farming area and Sungpan County as the farming-pastoral zone. Based on analyzing satellite and meteorological data, 3S technologies, vulnerability theory and empirical model method are used to study the climatic change characteristics,the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation cover, the impacts of these changes on the environment and the correlation of the net primary productivity of temperature and precipitation. At the same time, combining the condition of socio-economic development, the effect of climate change on land use/cover change and its main impact factors are discussed to reveal the change condition and its driving force. On the other side, the herders' and the farmers' sensitivity to exposure and adaptive capacity were analyzed using participatory and questionnaire survey methods. Moreover,the factors influencing the herders' and the farmers' perception on climate change and adaptive behavior were also analyzed by MPPACC model. We hope that this project can help to understand how adaptation can be facilitated, supported, and ultimately sustained in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and even similar other regions. We also hope that it can provide a means of evaluating the impacts of climate change and the comparative effectiveness of various response strategies and management options by using ecological, geographic, social methods and tools that includes both quantitative and qualitative approaches.

研究人类对于气候变化的适应机理和对策已成为全球变化研究中的焦点和前沿，而选择对气候变化具有极大依存度和敏感性的传统农业和游牧系统，研究人类-环境体系在气候变化中的适应力、弹性与缓冲作用，则是比较不同区域人类适应气候变化的模式素材。本研究以青藏高原东缘的川西北藏族农区、牧区及农牧交错区为对象，以气候变化为主线，综合运用遥感、野外群落取样、问卷调查和模型模拟等方法，研究气候变化影响区域人-地系统各要素的主要过程与途径；评估传统农业及畜牧业系统针对气候变化的脆弱性和风险性；分析当地农牧社会对于气候变化的适应方式、途径及偏好；模拟不同气候情景预案下区域人-地系统的演变特征；揭示气候变化背景下系统间各要素相互作用的驱动力、效应和反馈机制；辨识制约区域可持续发展的关键因素，并从整体协调的角度提出相应的人类应对气候变化的适应及风险防范对策，为区域可持续资源利用模式的建立与发展提供知识储备和理论支撑。

本研究以青藏高原东缘的川西北藏族农区、牧区及农牧交错区为对象，以气候变化为主线，综合运用遥感、野外群落取样、问卷调查和模型模拟等方法，研究气候变化影响区域人-地系统各要素的主要过程与途径；评估传统农业及畜牧业系统针对气候变化的脆弱性和风险性；分析当地农牧社会对于气候变化的适应方式、途径及偏好；揭示气候变化背景下系统间各要素相互作用的驱动力、效应和反馈机制；辨识制约区域可持续发展的关键因素，并从整体协调的角度提出相应的人类应对气候变化的适应及风险防范对策。研究结果表明：①近50年来，青藏高原东缘农牧区气温呈持续上升趋势，其中冬季增温最为明显；降水量呈减少趋势，春冬季节降水增加，夏秋季节降水减少；干燥度呈上升趋势，尤其是从上个世纪90年代至今暖干化的趋势明显。②气候变化虽在一定程度上影响着青藏高原东缘地区畜牧业的发展，但草地产权制度的变迁才对畜牧业的发展进程起着主导作用，并且合理的草地畜牧业产权制度对于牧民生计的改善具有重要作用。③青藏高原东缘不同区域农牧民的生计策略存在明显差异。在自然资本丰富，物质资本较为充足，而人力、社会和金融资本较为匮乏的地区，总体上牧民生计资本不均衡，生计活动多样性较低，生计可持续水平偏低。④与气候变化相比，人类活动对于农牧民的土地利用行为产生着更为直接、重要的作用。就青藏高原东缘地区来说，道路是引起建设用地和林地面积变化的主要驱动因子，而年末实有牲畜存栏量是草地和水域面积变化的主要驱动因子。⑤在应对气候变化、制度变迁以及人类活动等因素的潜在影响下，青藏高原东缘生计多样性及可持续性偏低地区的农牧民，其在不同因素的影响中面临着更为严峻的挑战。在不断修正的政策引导下，改善农牧民生计资本储量，均衡各个资本，增加生计多样性，是青藏高原东缘地区农牧民生计可持续发展的重要途径。

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