溃坝洪水风险区Na-Tech事件演化机制及风险评估方法

我国现有9.8万余座水库在发挥功能的同时也存在各类潜在风险。风险一方面源于大坝工程安全，且与下游人口、基础设施分布及经济发展水平密切相关，并可能导致风险区危险设备及有害物质释放与扩散，从而造成更严重后果。现有研究忽略了次生衍生Na-Tech事件影响，缺乏有效评估此类风险的方法。首先通过国内外溃坝与工业设施意外案例数据库，基于共现理论识别洪水风险区Na-tech事件要素集及级联关系，建立系统动力学模型探明“水-物-人”动力学特征，揭示Na-tech事件次生衍生演化机制；建立风险区危险设备抗力临界值与关键因子量化模型，提出危险设备脆弱性评估方法计算失效概率；基于大数据研究淹没区风险人口时空分异规律，构建风险人口热力图精确计算生命损失，从而建立溃坝洪水风险区Na-tech次生衍生灾害风险评估方法。研究成果对揭示溃坝次生衍生灾害成灾机制、科学定量评估其后果与风险、完善防灾减灾体系提供方法和依据。

There are more than 98,000 reservoirs in China, which have various potential risks as well as their functions. On the one hand, the risk originates from the safety of the dam project, and is closely related to the population, infrastructure distribution and economic development level of the downstream, and may lead to the release and diffusion of dangerous equipment and harmful substances in the risk area, which may cause more serious consequences. Current studies ignore the secondary derivative Na-Tech events and the effective method to assess such risks is absent. Based on co-occurrence theory, the Na-tech event element set and its cascade relation in flood risk area will be identified, and a system dynamics model will be established to identify the dynamic characteristics of "water-equipment-person", and the secondary evolution mechanism of Na-tech event will be revealed. The critical value and key factor quantitative model of hazard equipment resistance in risk area will be established, and the method of vulnerability assessment of hazard equipment will be used to calculate failure probability. Based on the big data, the spatial-temporal distribution of the risk population in the inundation area will be studied, from which the risk population thermodynamic chart will be used to calculate the life loss accurately. From above, the risk assessment method of Na-tech event in the dam-break flood risk area will be established systematically. The research results will provide methods and basis for revealing the mechanism of secondary derivative disasters in dam failure, scientifically and quantitatively assessing the consequences and risks, and perfecting the system of disaster prevention and reduction.