基于树木年轮的西风区典型区域水文气候响应关系及其时空变异性研究

气候变化和人类活动对水循环的影响是水文水资源研究领域重要任务，揭示区域水文、气候要素时空变异规律是其基础研究，长序列水文、气候数据更具代表性。以西风区典型区域—内蒙古区域为研究区，对位于研究区的四个典型区域的胡杨、油松、杉松、侧柏、白桦、蒙古栎6个树种树木年轮进行取样，应用树木年轮学建立近200年六类树种七组树轮宽度的综合年表；结合现代水文、气候观测数据，采用多种分析方式，揭示各类树种生长对水文、气候要素的响应关系，重建研究区近200年水文、气候要素序列；应用数理统计、年代均值、地质统计等方法，揭示近200年西风区典型区域水文、气候要素时空变异规律；应用均生函数等方法，构建水文、气候要素动态模拟模型，预估未来变化趋势，初步提出应对方案。以此为气候变化和人类活动对水循环的影响提供基础参考，为中国西风区提供年轮、水文、气候长序列数据，亦为区域经济、资源、生态环境协调可持续发展方案制定提供参考。

Climate change and human activities influence on water cycle is a important tasks in the field of hydrology and water resources, which to reveal spatial and temporal variability of the regional hydrology, climate factors is a basic research, and the long sequence of hydrology, climate data more representative. Base on westerly typical region-Inner Mongolia region as the study area, sampled the tree-rings from populus, pinus tabulaeformis, platycladus orientalis, birch, pine, Mongolia fir and oak the 6 species of tree, used tree-rings discipline to establish comprehensive chronology nearly 200 years with 6 tree species and 7 groups of tree ring width; combined with modern hydrology, climate observation data, used the way of correlation analysis to reveal the relationship of all kinds of tree growth response to hydrological and climatic factors, reconstruct hydrological and climatic factors time series in study area almost 200 years; used mathematical statistic, the mean analysis, geological statistics method and so on to revealed the temporal and spatial variation of hydrology , climate factors in study area almost 200 years; used mean generating function to establish simulation model for hydrology, climate factors, predict the future trend, come up with all manner of responses preliminary. With these provide basis reference for climate change and human activities influence on water cycle, for Chinese westerly region provide tree-rings, hydrology, climate long series data, and also for formulated regional economy, resource, ecological environment coordinated sustainable development plan provide reference.