农户燃料选择行为及其对健康和社会经济的影响研究

我国有近5亿农村人口选择煤炭、柴草等固体燃料作为主要炊事用能。这造成了严重的家庭室内空气污染，致使每年约80万人过早死亡(与室外大气污染致死人数相当)。固体燃料采集和利用还造成了生态环境破坏、黑碳排放(加剧气候变化)，对儿童教育、妇女就业与赋权、劳动生产率等造成了深远的社会经济影响。以往的研究主要聚焦于固体燃料燃烧对健康的影响机理；而较少关注农户燃料选择行为的内在原因，以及固体燃料采集和利用对社会经济的影响和反馈机制。本项目拟从经济和管理科学视角将室内空气质量纳入到效用函数，据此推导农户燃料选择行为，应用较大规模微观调查数据和多项Logit模型对选择行为开展实证研究；应用联立计量方程/多维数据模型评估室内空气污染的健康与经济福利损失；评估固体燃料利用对儿童教育和妇女发展等社会发展的影响。在理论和实证研究基础上，提出推进农村能源转型、消除能源贫困的政策建议。课题组在该领域已有很好的研究基础。

In China, nearly 500 million rural residence choose coal, firewood and other solid fuels as the main cooking fuels, which has resulted in serious indoor air pollution, and led to about 800 thousand premature deaths each year (equivalent to the outdoor air pollution deaths). Collecting and utilizing solid fuels not only cause ecological destruction and black carbon emissions (accelerate climate change), but also has serious social-economic effects, such as on children's education, women’s employment and development, labor productivity, etc. Previous studies paid more attention to the health effects from the combustion of solid fuels, while less to the underlying reasons of household behavior of fuels choice, neither to the impact and feedback mechanisms of solid fuels collection use. The project considers indoor air quality into the utility function from the perspectives of economics and management sciences. Accordingly, we will carry out empirical research to capture the farmers’ fuels choice behavior by using large-scale application of microeconomic data and Multinomial Logit model, assess the health and economic welfare losses from indoor air pollution by applying simultaneous equations or multi-dimensional data model, and assess the social impact of solid fuels use, such as on children's education and women’s development. Based on theoretical and empirical research, this project will propose some policy implications to promote rural energy transition and poverty reduction. The research group has had a good research foundation in this field.