我国天气、气候在季节内的时间尺度上受到MJO的调制作用，而目前模式对MJO模拟和预测的能力还很弱，特别有关MJO对流生成的预测。这反映出我们在MJO理论机制研究中还存在不足，特别是印度洋地区MJO对流生成机制方面。本研究将从典型个例揭示和普遍验证两个方面展开对赤道印度洋地区MJO对流生成机制的研究，并试图发现影响MJO对流生成的关键因素。一是通过已有实验观测数据对DYNAMO期间的三次MJO个例进行详细分析，剖析探究MJO对流生成机制。二是利用长时间再分析资料分析比较印度洋地区不同大气环流场和海温分布型对MJO对流生成影响的差异。在此基础上，通过对MJO进行一些预报试验，探索出可以用来开展MJO对流生成预测的因子。本研究对深刻认识MJO对流生成机制以及提高MJO模拟预测能力具有重要的理论意义，也对提高我国季节内延伸期预报能力有一定的应用价值。

The Madden-Julian Oscillation has significant impact on the weather and climate in China. Our inability to reproduce the MJO in the most state-of-art global climate models and the low forecast ability of MJO, especially for its initiation, reflects our lack of understanding of its fundamental dynamics, especially the convective initiation of MJO over tropical Indian Ocean. We want to study the convective initiation of MJO over Indian Ocean and identify the key factors that govern the convective initiation of MJO using both case study and composite analysis. For the case study, the structure of the large-scale circulation and the physical processes at the convective initiation stage of the three MJO cases observed during the DYNAMO field campaign will be diagnosed using sounding observations and the high-resolution analysis from ECMWF. For the composite analysis, the potential influence, e.g. seasonal cycle and distribution of Indian Ocean SST, to the convective initiation of MJO will also be investigated in a long time period. Finally，several hindcast experiments will be conducted to explore the possible factors that can help the prediction of the convective initiation of MJO. This study will help understand the mechanism of the convective initiation of MJO and improve our ability of MJO simulation as well as forecast in the global model; furthermore, it will brings tremendous benefit to the intraseasonal weather forecast in China.