发达国家货币政策跨国传导的复杂溢出效应：开放经济条件下的DSGE多国模型与VAR数据检验

金融危机爆发至今已有十余年，发达国家出现了差异化的发展状况，美国政府实施了减税措施，同时贸易摩擦开始逐渐升级。世界经济领域出现的新动态可能会改变发达国家货币政策的常规的跨国传导路径，影响其他国家的货币政策制定实施以及经济发展。本课题将梳理危机以来世界货币政策的演化，结合最新的经济环境变化，分析发达国家货币政策的溢出效应，讨论货币政策的未来发展以及对经济的影响。具体来说，本课题将在开放经济背景下，建立三国DSGE模型分析发达国家货币政策背向调整的溢出效应，建立两国DSGE模型分析发达国家利率政策与税率政策调整的复合影响的溢出效应，建立两国DSGE模型分析贸易摩擦背景下发达国家货币政策的溢出效应，再通过VAR系列的统计技术检验发达国家货币政策调整的影响效果，并提出风险防范的应对措施。相关研究有利于拓展开放经济条件下的货币经济学理论框架，促进新常态下的货币政策调整方式转变，并推动经济结构调整。

More than ten years since the financial crisis broke out, the developed countries have developed in a differentiated way, the U.S. government has reduced the tax rate, at the same time, trade frictions have begun to escalate. New developments in the world economic environment may change the normal transnational transmission path of monetary policy, and affect the implementation of monetary policy and economic development in other countries. This project will pursue the evolution of world monetary policy since the crisis, analyze the spillover effect of monetary policy in developed countries, and discuss the future development and impact of monetary policy. Based on the background of open economy, this project will establish tri-country DSGE model to analyze the spillover effect of backward adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, establish bi-country DSGE model to analyze the spillover effect of compound influence of interest rate policy and tax rate policy adjustment in developed countries, establish bi-country DSGE model to analyze the spillover effect of monetary policy in developed countries under the background of trade friction, use VAR techniques to test the effect of monetary policy adjustment in developed countries and propose countermeasures for risk prevention. Relevant research can expand the theoretical framework of monetary economics under the open economy, promote the transformation of monetary policy adjustment mode under the New Normal Economy, and promote the adjustment of economic structure.