城镇化加速背景下大城市人口集聚与义务教育资源承载能力的耦合协调度研究

本项目以我国35个大城市为例，对人口集聚与教育资源承载能力耦合协调关系程度进行了研究。首先，基于耦合协调发展理论的相关研究，从定性角度论述了人口空间分布与教育资源承载力相互作用的机理。其次，运用ArcGIS和人口集中指数模型，计算人口集聚度综合指数，分析在2009-2019年我国35个大城市人口分布特征，以及大城市学龄人口变动对义务教育的需求情况。接着分析教育资源承载力的基本概念、理论内涵，构建一套涵盖义务教育人力、物力、财力资源承载能力的评价指标体系, 探讨义务教育资源承载能力的计算方法，计算2009-2019年35个大城市义务教育资源承载力综合指数。然后，利用耦合系数模型，测算2009-2019年35个大城市人口集聚—义务教育资源承载力耦合协调度，判断 35 个大城市二者耦合协调发展的程度及时空变化趋势，通过多元回归分析，探讨影响二者耦合协调度的主要因素。最后，提出提高二者耦合协调度的对策建议，解决城镇化加速背景下人口流动与教育资源配置不协调的问题，更好地促进大城市义务教育向优质均衡目标迈进。

Taking 35 big cities in China as examples, this project carries out the research on the coupling coordination degree between the population aggregation and the carrying capacity of educational resources. Firstly, based on the relevant studies on the theory of coupling coordination development, it qualitatively expounds the mechanism of the interaction between the population distribution and the carrying capacity of educational resources. Secondly, ArcGIS and the population concentration index model are used to calculate the comprehensive index of population aggregation, analyze the population distribution characteristics of Chinese 35 large cities from 2009 to 2019, and the demand for compulsory education from the change of school-age population in large cities. Thirdly, it analyzes the basic concepts and theoretical connotations of the carrying capacity of educational resources, constructs a set of evaluation index systems covering the carrying capacity of human, material, and financial resources in compulsory education, discusses the calculation method of the carrying capacity, and calculates the comprehensive index of compulsory education resource carrying capacity of 35 large cities from 2009 to 2019.Then, the coupling coefficient model is used to calculate the coupling degree, judge the degree of the coupling coordination development of the two in 35 large cities and the trend of spatial and temporal changes. The main factors affecting the coupling coordination of the two are explored through multiple regression analysis. Finally, it proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the degree of coupling coordination between the two to solve the problem of the incoordination of population floating and the allocation of educational resources under the background of accelerated urbanization, and to better promote the development of compulsory education in big cities towards the goal of high-quality equilibrium.