碳中和背景下中国发电行业碳排放配额分配方法及其应用研究

完善碳交易机制建设，启动全国统一碳市场是我国应对气候变化、实现可持续发展的关键。本项目在“碳中和”的现实减排需求下，拟提出自上而下与自下而上的总量设置优化方法；探讨国家方案下考量发电企业减排成本的最优配额基准值，基于双层优化建模得出其优化调整系数；研究从国内外碳交易市场关于配额免费及拍卖比例设置出发，模拟不同方式下国家经济发展及企业的发展决策，探讨出我国配额免费及拍卖比例设置的调整路径，是对国家碳交易市场试行方案的优化与完善。项目申请人围绕碳试点评估、碳排放核算、碳交易主持或参与了10余项重要课题，在国际主流的SCI/SSCI期刊发表论文10余篇，作为封面作者合著1部，参与多份重要国家政策文件和报告的撰写，为本项目奠定了基础。本项目拟在碳配额理论和应用两方面，发表SCI/SSCI论文3篇以上，开发碳配额优化模型系统1个，提出政策咨询报告1份，为国家碳交易市场机制建设提供决策支持。

Improving the construction of the carbon trading mechanism and launching the China's emission trading system is the key to tackle climate change and to achieve sustainable development. Under the actual emission reduction demand for achieving “carbon neutrality”, this project intends to propose the top-down and bottom-up methods of setting the Cap of emissions. This project also discusses the optimal quota baseline of power generation enterprises considering the emission reduction cost based on the national plan,and a two-level optimization modeling method will be used in order to obtain its optimal adjustment coefficient. Then the project simulates, referring to the previous experience of allocation of free allowances and auction ratios in domestic and international carbon trading market, the national economic development and corporate development decisions in different scenarios and finds a suitable way for China. This project is an improvement and optimization for the China's emission trading system. The applicant has participated in more than 10 important research projects in carbon trading pilot evaluation, carbon emission accounting, and carbon trading mechanism, etc., published more than 10 SCI/SSCI papers in mainstream journals, and as the cover author, co-authored 1 book, and participated in the writing of a number of important national policy documents and reports, which establishes a solid foundation for this project. The applicant plans to publish more than 3 SCI/SSCI papers on theory and application of carbon allowance, develops 1 carbon allowance optimization model system, and proposes 1 policy consultation report to provide decision-making support.