水文非一致性问题颠覆了传统水文学的基本假设及发展基础，且变化环境下水文设计与风险管理理论受学科发展限制一致举步维艰。项目基于社会水文学原理，梳理水文物理非一致性与统计非一致性的伴生机制，提出水文非一致性的定量诊断方法；透过非一致性概化驱动模型，研究气候-下垫面-人类活动-水文系统互馈作用下的关键性驱动过程，探明水文非一致性的物理成因；基于驱动过程的函数表达，构建水文非一致性变化的系统动力学模拟模型，结合延展修正系数和非一致性空间传递机制，建立面向流域尺度的系统动力学延展模型，实现非一致性变化的定量预测与空间差异性的科学解读。项目以黄土高原为例，旨在通过研究揭示黄土高原区非一致性变化的物理成因及发展趋势，为规范黄土高原区人类涉水活动提供了科学依据。研究成果对于解决新时期工程设计中的水文非一致性问题，推动我国变化环境下工程水文设计方法的出台，规避已有工程和运行策略的潜在风险具有极其重要的作用。

Hydrological non-stationarity or inconsistency overturns the basic assumptions of traditional engineering hydrology for development, and the theory serving for non-stationary hydrological design and risk management develops slowly due to the restriction of subject development. Based on the principles of social hydrology, the cooperative mechanism of hydrological physical inconsistency and statistical inconsistency is sorted out in this project, and a quantitative testing method is proposed for hydrological inconsistency. Also, the key driving processes in climate-underlying surface-human activity-hydrology coupling system is studied through the generalization driving model for hydrological inconsistency, and the attribution of the inconsistency is proved. Besides, the function expression of the driving process is carried out, by which the system dynamics simulation model of the hydrological inconsistency change is constructed. Combined with the extension correction coefficient and the inconsistency space transfer mechanism, the system dynamics model is improved for forecasting the non-stationary hydrological series at the watershed scale and the spatial analysis. Taking the loess plateau as an example, the project aims to reveal the physical causes and development trend of non-stationary hydrological series changes in the loess plateau, and provides a scientific basis for guiding human activities on water resources development in the loess plateau. The research results play an extremely important role in solving the problem of hydrological inconsistency in engineering design in the new period, promoting the development of engineering hydrological design methods under the changing environment in China, and avoiding the potential risks of existing water engineering and operation strategies.