金融摩擦、杠杆率与经济增长：基于微观数据和HANK模型的研究

我国经济当前面临经济增长减速和宏观杠杆率上升的“两难问题”。本课题基于微观数据，以非金融企业部门为对象，着重研究金融摩擦、杠杆率以及经济增长之间的关系，以图破解该“两难问题”。首先，基于文献研究与理论分析提出一系列静态假定，构建一个动态HANK模型分析金融摩擦扭曲货币政策到异质性企业的传导机制，分别从静态和动态两个维度构建基于金融摩擦的企业部门杠杆率与经济增长相互关联、动态演化的理论框架。其次，基于最新的企业层面数据，利用结构模型、倾向性评分匹配、非参数模型及非线性动态SYS-GMM模型等方法，分别估计加总的和细分类别的摩擦因素对企业部门杠杆率、经济增长以及二者之间关系的影响。再次，通过去杠杆实验，选择最优异质化方式，构建中等规模异质性企业HANK-DSGE模型，进行多情景的数值模拟，寻找最优宏观政策组合。最后，从企业、市场和国家三个层面，构建稳定经济增长和防范债务风险的三维对策体系。

China's economy is currently facing a dilemma of decelerating economic growth and rising macro leverage. Based on firm level micro-data and focusing on the non-financial enterprise sector, this project explores the relationship among financial friction, leverage, and economic growth in order to solve the dilemma. First, based on literature research and theoretical analysis, a series of static assumptions are proposed, and a dynamic HANK model is constructed to analyze how financial friction distorting the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to heterogeneous firms, in this way the project set up a complete theoretical framework to interpret the static and dynamic relationship among financial friction, leverage, and economic growth. Secondly, based on the firm-level data, using structural models, propensity score matching, non-parametric models, and nonlinear dynamic SYS-GMM models, etc., the project estimates the effects of aggregated and subdivided categories of financial friction factors. Thirdly, combining the empirical research results with the real economic characteristics, an optimal heterogeneity method is selected to construct a medium scale HANK-DSGE model in which multi-scenario numerical simulations are carried out to find the optimal macro policy. Finally, the project builds a policy tool box for steady growth and deleveraging and proposes an operable policy implementation path, from the level of firm, marketing and macroeconomy.