天山乌鲁木齐河流域冰川水文过程试验研究

流域尺度冰川水文研究是冰冻圈科学研究领域前缘之一。由于长期系统性的器测资料缺乏，我国山区冰川水文研究较为薄弱。在我国涉及冰川监测的台站中，天山冰川观测试验站对乌鲁木齐河上游（尤其是乌河源区1号冰川）开展了长达50年以上的冰川、水文、气象等要素观测，且具有丰富相关研究积累，因此乌鲁木齐河流域是开展我国冰川水文相关研究的理想场所。本项目在强化对1号冰川消融过程观测基础上，利用流域现有6个水文断面的观测资料以及气象、冰川等长时间序列监测数据，试验改进基于冰川能量产流物理过程的流域尺度水文模型，并联合多元数据加强模型参数率定的基础工作，进而探讨气候变化及冰川动态变化对冰川水文预估不确定性的影响。本项目旨在基于冰川能量—物质平衡/径流算法改进流域尺度水文模型，提高已有模型对冰川水文过程的模拟能力，并给出乌鲁木齐河山区流域冰川变化对其水文过程、水资源影响的结论性认识。

Research on glacier hydrology and its corresponding model is the hotpot of cryosphere science and climate change field. Due to the lack of long-term systematic measurement data, glacier hydrological research is still weak in China. Among some monitoring stations including glacier observation, Tianshan Glaciological Station, CAS has been exclusively carried out the more than 50a observations including glacial, hydrological and meteorological factors on Glacier No.1 in Urumqi River. And numerous researches on glacier have been achieved based on this station. So the catchment of Urumqi River is an ideal place to develop the relevant glacier hydrological research. Based on further strengthening the monitoring the melt process of Glacier No.1, This project will use the materials of six hydrological cross sections and the long-term series meteorological data and glacier information, so as to improve the hydrological model containing the physical process of glacier runoff generation. And the parameters in the model will be calibrated using multi-objective approch. Finally we will explore the uncertainty of climate change and glacier dynamics on glacier runoff. The project aims to build and evaluate the method of glacier hydrological simulation and prediction. The results will not only provide a reference for other catchments with glacier, but also be of great significance in the understanding of the change tendency of water resource and its utilization.