耦合风险结构响应下的港口危化品物流风险监管演化机制研究

8·12天津港事故调查显示我国港口危化品物流监管中存在严重的监管失职问题，针对港口危化品物流监管中存在监管主体众多、监管责任不明、危化品物流监管困难和监管效率不高等问题，本课题在考虑不同耦合风险结构响应的条件下，研究港口危化品物流风险监管机制的设计和优化，是现阶段国家管理模式探索的趋势。首先，深入辨识港口危化品物流风险关键影响因素，诠释关键风险因素之间的耦合关系，为耦合风险评估提供基础；其次，通过聚类分析和系统动力学等方法深入刻画风险耦合机理，构建港口危化品物流耦合风险评估模型，对主要的危化品吞吐港口开展风险评估；最后，基于风险评估结果划分耦合风险结构，构建静态博弈和动态演化博弈双均衡联动模型，剖析短中长不同时期不同耦合风险结构对港口危化品物流监管策略的影响机理，据此设计不同的监管策略，为政府和企业提供决策建议，以期达到从耦合风险把控到推动靶点监管模式的落实，丰富风险监管理论研究。

8·12 Tianjin port accident investigation shows that there are serious dereliction of duty in the supervision of port hazardous chemicals logistics in China. In view of the problems in the supervision of port hazardous chemicals logistics, such as many supervision subjects, unclear supervision responsibility, difficult supervision of hazardous chemicals and low supervision efficiency, this paper studies the risk supervision mechanism of port hazardous chemicals logistics under the condition of considering different coupling risk structure response. The design and optimization of the system is the trend of the exploration of the national management mode at the present stage. Firstly, the key influencing factors of port hazardous chemicals logistics risk are identified, and the coupling relationship between the key risk factors is interpreted to provide the basis for the next step of coupling risk assessment. Secondly, the risk coupling mechanism is deeply depicted through cluster analysis and system dynamics, and the port hazardous chemicals logistics coupling risk assessment model is constructed. The coupling risk assessment model is used to carry out the risk assessment of the main hazardous chemicals handling ports. Finally, based on the results of risk assessment, the coupling risk structure is divided, and the double equilibrium linkage model of static game and dynamic evolutionary game is constructed. Based on the game model, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of different coupling risk structures in short, medium and long term on port hazardous chemicals logistics supervision strategy. According to the research results, different regulatory strategies are designed to provide decision-making suggestions for the government and enterprises. It is expected to achieve the goal from coupling risk control to promoting the implementation of target regulatory mode. The research enriches the theoretical research of risk supervision.