面向不确定性的Web2.0用户创作内容管理研究

以Web2.0环境下企业对用户创作内容（UGC）管理面临的不确定性问题开展研究：（1）针对数据统计和质量确认的不确定性，研究UGC采集规则、UGC统计方法、UGC可信度、UGC创作者可信度等，形成企业UGC数据管理理论；（2）针对交互影响的不确定性，拟完成UGC相互影响机制建模、UGC与EGC(企业创作内容)影响机制建模、UGC中的口碑形成、扩散与定量测度建模，构建企业UGC意见动力学理论；（3）针对企业对UGC影响决策的不确定性：①对数字社群UGC临界状态阀值量化、状态质变效能、状态引导等进行建模，构建企业UGC临界状态管理理论；②对魔弹UGC发现、极端影响力评估、极端影响力产生机理以及极端状态下的企业沟通决策进行建模，探索企业极端UGC沟通决策理论。成果将在人民在线和大众点评网的示范应用中加以验证。有助于建构Web2.0环境下的企业客户管理的新理论，对于电子商务企业实践有重要指导作用。

This proposal posits to investigate the uncertainties that arise in enterprises' managing user generated content (UGC) in the Web 2.0 environment. Specifically, 1) regarding the uncertainties in data statistics and content verification, we examine the UGC data sampling methods, statistical methodologies, content credibility, and reputation of content creator, and consequently formulate the theory of UGC data management for enterprises; 2) with respect to the uncertainties in mutual interaction and influence, we target to construct the models for the mechanisms of the interactions between UGCs and between UGC and EGC, the formation and diffusion of word of mouth in UGC and their measurements, and consequently establish the theory of enterprise UGC opinion dynamics; 3) regarding the uncertainties in enterprise intervention, we quantify the UGC thresholds for critical states in digital communities, build the models for the effects of state transitions and external interventions, and consequently construct the theory of enterprise management of UGC in critical state. This research also aims to propose the models for the identification of UGC possessing "magical bullets," the evaluation of extreme influences and the mechanisms of their generation, and enterprise communications and decision-making under extreme conditions, and consequently explore the theory of enterprise communications and decision-making under extreme UGC. The results will be validated via demo applications on www.dianping.com and www.peopleyuqing.com. This work will help to advance the new theories on enterprise customer management in the Web 2.0 environment and provide important guidance for enterprise electronic commerce practice.