北半球冬季中高纬大气环流低频变率成因的低维随机学动力学研究

本项目旨在通过对控制冬季中高纬大气环流低频变率的低维随机动力学过程的系统全面的研究，深化对这种低频变率的成因和特性的理解与认识。在此基础上，深刻揭示行星尺度和天气尺度扰动间相互作用以及与之相关的北半球大地形的动力学不稳定在其形成机理和复杂的时空结构成因中的作用。包括行星尺度扰动和天气尺度扰动在其时间尺度和阶段（regime）形成中的作用、大地形引起地形不稳定的具体方式以及北半球及区域范围遥相关型（如AO/NAM、NAO，PNA等）与它们的关系等。为冬季中高纬短期气候的诊断分析和预测奠定理论和方法方面的基础。

This proposal, by suggesting a throughout investigation on the governing low-order stochastic dynamics of the boreal winter extratropical low-frequency variability, is aimed at deepening our understanding of the mechanism and nature of this low-frequency variability. As a result, we can reveal particularly the interaction between planetary and synoptic disturbance and the dynamical roles of the planetary-scale topography in the formation of its complex spatio-temporal structure. These include the roles played by the planetary and synoptic disturbance in the origins of its time scale and weather regimes, the manner in which the topographic instability induced by the planetary-scale topography behaves and how the Northern Hemisphere teleconnevtion patterns such as the AO/NAM, the NAO and the PNA are related to such kind of topographic instability. Research on these issues may lay both theoretical and methodological foundation for the extended range-forecast.