电弧增材材料内部缺陷超声定量的不确定性建模及影响研究

本项目以电弧增材制造材料内部缺陷超声定量的固有不确定性为研究对象，针对（1）层级、多源不确定变量尚无客观完备的概率模型；（2）小样本下高置信参数估计、利用不完备信息的概率推断尚无客观自洽的数学方法；（3）超声定量不确定性对损伤容限结果的影响无法综合量化三个问题，从（1）模型及模型参数均不确定条件下的超声定量概率建模；（2）小样本及不完备信息下超声定量模型参数的高置信概率推断；(3)超声定量不确定性对损伤容限评估的敏感性建模三个方面开展研究，并以电弧增材2319铝合金为工程应用对象，开展试验对整体方法进行综合验证，最终形成电弧增材制造材料内部缺陷超声定量不确定性量化及影响分析的科学方法，解决缺陷超声定量不确定性精确表征的科学问题，突破现有电弧增材超声定量因研究不充分、数据少，导致难以实现关键工程应用的瓶颈。

The research focuses on the uncertainty quantification of ultrasonic sizing of embedded flaws in Wire and Arch Additive Manufacturing (WAAM). The current modeling method for such uncertainty is based on a particular assumption of model format, and relies on large samples to obtain reliable results; therefore, the current method is difficult to deal with the inherent hierarchical, multi-source uncertainties of ultrasonic sizing process. The research develops a systematical method to handle such uncertainties. WAAM-Al2319 materials are used to obtain the experimental data and investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed research is expected to provide a systematical method for uncertainty quantification of ultrasonic sizing of WAAM materials, and to alleviate the bottleneck in application of WAAM materials in critical engineering systems.