突发事件下应急物资社会筹集中人因风险的识别与治理研究

应急物资社会筹集是突发事件救灾物资的必要的、有益的补充。但是，应急物资社会筹集中人因风险是制约突发灾害应对有效性的重要因素，对救灾效果的影响不容小觑。本项目拟开展应急物资社会筹集中人因风险的识别与治理研究：（1）应急物资社会筹集中人因风险识别的实证研究。探究应急物资社会筹集中人因风险内在机理与特性，基于系统动力学挖掘关键影响因素，实证设计不同应急物资社会筹集主体关键风险的识别方案，探求关键因素对关键风险的显著性影响。（2）基于动态博弈与契约激励的应急物资社会筹集中人因风险治理研究。建立政府监管与应急物资社会筹集主体人因风险的动态博弈模型，模拟多重博弈中政府风险识别能力的强化过程。引入激励机制，设计针对不同应急物资社会筹集主体的激励博弈模型，对比分析引入激励前后的博弈均衡。两部分研究联系密切，人因风险的识别让政府对风险的治理更具针对性，提升治理效率；人因风险的治理可强化政府对风险的识别能力。

Emergency supplies social collecting is a necessary and beneficial supplement to relief supplies in emergencies. However, the human factor risks in emergency supplies social collecting is an important factor restricting the effectiveness of emergency disaster response, and its impact on the effectiveness of disaster relief cannot be underestimated. This project intends to carry out research on the identification and governance of human factor risks in the social collection of emergency supplies, the specific research contents include: (1) Empirical research on the identification of human factor risks in the emergency supplies social collecting. We will firstly explore the internal mechanism and characteristics of human factor risks in the emergency supplies social collecting, secondly discover the key influence factors of human factor risks based on system dynamics, then empirically design the identification schemes of key risks for different social collecting entities of emergency supplies, and explore the significant impact of different key factors on key risks. (2) Research on the governance of human factor risks in emergency supplies social collecting based on dynamic game and contract incentives. We will establish a dynamic game model between the government supervision and the human factor risks of emergency supplies social collecting entities, and simulate the strengthening process of the government's risk identification ability in multiple games. Then design an incentive game model for different social raising entities of emergency supplies by introduce an incentive mechanism, finally we will compare and analyze the game equilibrium before and after the introduction of incentives. The above two research parts are closely related. The identification of human factor risks allows the government to manage risks more targeted and improve governance efficiency; on the other hand, the governance of human factor risks can strengthen the government's risk identification ability. Eventually, the identification and governance research plan of human factor risks in emergency supplies social collection will be formed.