考虑双网级联失效的复杂大电网ICS可靠性研究

传统电网逐步发展为以EPS、ICS、MCS为基础构建的复杂大电网。项目拟从复杂网络角度入手，研究电力ICS与EPS双网耦合可靠性评测模型。考虑复杂大电网业务特性、电力ICS系统与电网间的网络连接关系、业务关联状态等内容建立双网耦合关联关系，提出基于复杂网络的分层耦合模型，并建立基于耦合网络的可靠性评测综合分析模型；构建ICS与电网间的失效级联模型，分析ICS故障引起级联失效的影响深度。重点解决如何从ICS与电网结构的相关性出发，构建符合ICS与EPS双网耦合模型的可靠性评测算法，对可靠性耦合模型及相关算法的进行仿真实验。研究内容包括：复杂大电网中的电力ICS业务风险对可靠性的影响，基于复杂网络的ICS与EPS的双网耦合可靠性模型，分析ICS与EPS系统的级联失效模型及耦合网络元件失效后可靠性研究，提出适用于复杂大电网ICS节点重要性和网络可靠性评测算法，从而分析ICS失效对电网可靠性影响。

Traditional power grid evolves towards complex power grid gradually based on the 3S (EPS, Electric Power System; ICS,Information and Communication System;MCS,Monitoring and Control System).The theory of the complex network is introduced into large power grid and characteristic of electric applications transmitted by ICS are involved for obtaining the traffic distribution attribution which is running on electric data communication network. Correlation between ICS and EPS is proposed, to obtain the coupling network model for further analyzing reliability of complex network. Also, put forward hierarchy coupling network model based on complex networks, construct the reliability network model based on coupling network and the model of cascading failure between ICS network and power grid. The goal is to improve the security and reliability of physical network of power grid. In concert with ICS and EPS from the dependency of topology between ICS and EPS network, simulate to architect the coupling model and failure awareness algorithm.Reliability model is based on ICS network and EPS grid layer, and the critical point is how to built reliability physical network model to simulate the model from the view of topology connection between ICS and EPS. On the whole, the research items include analyzing power ICS business characteristics influence on coupling network model on complex large power grid, structuring ICS and EPS coupling network utilizing complex networks theories, analyzing correlation of failure between ICS and EPS system, coming up with failure awareness and reliability evaluation algorithm apply to complex power grid. The proposal provides theoretical support for reliability influence between EPS and ICS network in the environment of complex large power grid.