明清闭关锁国时期的知识积累和技术进步

本项目将明清闭关锁国时期的中国看作是一个近似独立于世界的系统，在土地和产出的可靠数据难以得到的情况下，以Grossman和Helpman的知识扩散模型为基础，引入马尔萨斯假设，建立了分析中国及世界知识积累和知识扩散的数理模型，然后对数理模型进行计量检验，证实了模型的预测，并运用模型的结论对一些重要问题进行了理论解释。本项目的贡献有四点：一是建立一个包含知识积累和知识扩散，能通过人口数量来预测技术进步、人口增长和经济增长,以及人口增长率预测技术进步率的数理模型；二是以明清闭关锁国时期中国为例进行研究，为内生知识积累模型提供了继Kremer（1993）之后的第二个经验证据；三是用科学方法确定了明清时期中国技术进步趋于停滞并最终落后于西方的具体时间；四是从闭关锁国状态下中国与世界在知识积累和知识传播方面存在差异的角度，部分地解释了李约瑟难题。

This project views China under “Closed-Door Policy” during Ming and Qing Dynasties as a system approximately independent of the world. Considering the unavailability of reliable data on land and output, this project, with the Malthusian hypothesis and the knowledge dissemination model proposed by Grossman and Helpman as the basis, attempts to establish a mathematical model for the analysis of knowledge accumulation and knowledge dissemination in China and around the world. This mathematical model and its predicative power are quantitatively verified, and then the model is applied to the theoretical explanation to some important issues.. The contributions of this project are as follows: (1) A mathematical model of knowledge accumulation and knowledge dissemination is established, which contributes to the prediction of technological progress, population growth and economic growth via the total population, and the prediction of the technological progress rate via the population growth rate. (2) This project, taking China under “Closed-Door Policy” during Ming and Qing Dynasties as an example, offers another empirical evidence following Kremer (1993) for the endogenous knowledge accumulation model. (3) The specific time, with scientific methods, is verified when the technological progress during Ming and Qing Dynasties tended to suspend and eventually lagged behind the West. (4) The Needham problem can be partially explained by examining the differences of knowledge accumulation and knowledge dissemination between China under “Closed-Door Policy” during Ming and Qing Dynasties and the rest of the world.