基于相互依存复杂网络理论的智能电网风险评估

智能电网是信息网络与电力网络耦合而成的复杂网络且具有相互依存的关系。最新的复杂网络研究成果表明，这种相互依存的特性将会带来新的脆弱性。但目前的研究主要是基于相互依存网络的概念模型，无法辨识具体智能电网的脆弱环节在哪里，更缺乏有效的措施来预防这种可能的风险。本项目拟基于概念模型发展能够描述智能电网特性的改进模型和连锁故障的风险评估方法，并对可能的风险提出应对策略。具体地，首先对智能电网的复杂性进行研究，提取信息网与电力网的重要特性，包括动态和静态特性以及信息流和潮流特性，并结合概念模型形成智能电网的复杂网络模型；其次研究两个网络内部及其之间的连锁故障传播机理，提出连锁故障的风险评估方法。该方法能够模拟连锁故障的发生，发展过程，并能估计连锁故障的后果，辨识出脆弱环节。最后根据辨识出的风险，提出综合的安全策略，降低可能的风险，从而有效地防止连锁故障和大停电的发生。

Smart grid is an interdependent complex networks coupling cyber network and power network (grid) together. According to the recent research results from complex network theory, this kind of interdependent features will introduce new vulnerability. However, current study is mainly focused on conceptual models of interdependent complex network, which cannot identify where the vulnerable part of smart grid is. Also there are no proper strategies to tackle potential risks. In general terms, the aims of this project are going to develop improved models and risk assessment methods by considering important smart grid features and then propose new countermeasures against potential risk. In detail, firstly, study on the complexity of smart grid; exploit important features including dynamic and steady state features of cyber network and power network as well as the characteristics of information flow and power flow; then extend the conceptual model of interdependent network to smart grid model by considering these important features. Secondly, study on the cascading mechanism within and between cyber network and power network. Then propose new risk assessment method which can simulate the process of cascading failures and identify vulnerable parts. Thirdly, based on the obtained results, comprehensive security strategies will be presented to enhance the robustness of smart grid and reduce the potential risk of cascading failures as well as large blackouts.