城市道路交通网络级联失效及应急研究

城市道路交通网络是典型的复杂网络，级联失效是复杂网络的一个重要特性。车辆保有量的快速增长、路网规模的不断扩大，城市道路交通网络级联失效的风险越来越大，级联失效的控制和应急处理也越来越重要。本项目将围绕城市道路交通网络级联失效是如何发生的、是哪些因素造成的、级联失效应怎样预防、级联失效发生后应怎么办四个问题展开研究。运用复杂网络理论构建城市道路交通网络级联失效宏观和微观模型，有效描述级联失效在城市道路交通网络上的传播机理。在此基础上，基于级联失效风险评估，辨识城市道路交通网络级联失效的重要影响源。针对重要影响源，构建多措施协同的级联失效预防方法，提出级联失效城市道路交通网络Hub路段的修复策略、紧急救援路径方案等，有效保障城市道路交通网络的基本功能。.本项目研究将有力地促进道路交通管理技术、交通复杂网络理论和方法的发展，研究成果具有重要的理论意义和广阔的应用前景。

Urban road traffic network is a typical complex network. Cascading failure is an important characteristic of the complex network. With the fast increase of the vehicle quantity and the rapid expansion of the road network in the urban, the risk of the cascading failure may be greater in the urban road traffic network, then, the control and emergency handling of the cascading failure become more important. .How the cascading failure is happened in the urban road traffic network, what factors affect the cascading failure, how the cascading failure should be prevented, and what measures should be adopted after the cascading failure will be researched in this project. .Firstly, the macroscopic model and microcosmic model of the cascading failure are respectively developed based on the complex network theory in order to effectively describe the transmission mechanism of the cascading failure in the urban road traffic network. .Secondly, the most important effect factors of the cascading failure are identified using the risk assessment method. .Thirdly, the multiple traffic management measures coordinated are suggested to prevent the cascading failure according to the most important effect factors. Moreover, the rehabilitation strategies of the hub road sections and the emergency rescue paths are proposed to ensure the basic traffic function after the cascading failure has happened in the urban road traffic network. .Through this project, the road traffic management technique and traffic complex network theory can be effectively developed. Moreover, research achievements have profound theoretical significance and extensive application prospect.