中国典型拐出源地拐卖儿童犯罪时空演化机制与防控对策

拐卖儿童犯罪危害极大，已成为中国社会一大痛点，但学界可提供的科学认知有限。选取前期全国宏观研究识别的主要犯罪源区（西南地区），从犯罪地理学、文化地理学及时间地理学整合分析的视角，聚焦犯罪者、受害人与发生地三个维度，从中观到微观对犯罪的形成演化进行研究。利用社会人口学与空间计量学方法对犯罪施/受害方进行分析，揭示核心群体与热点源地及其相互关联；以文化地理学、时间地理学和生命历程理论为指导，剖析犯罪对典型受害人生命轨迹变迁的影响及其回归源地的制约因素；整合社会解组论与日常活动论等犯罪地理学理论，从县域/社区/家庭等维度，解析热点源地的空间“盲区/缝隙”，探索犯罪分布模式与空间防控路径；汇总揭示犯罪形成/演化/影响/防控的综合机制，构建典型犯罪情境，提出相应对策。项目在理论上可构建一个中微观尺度拐卖儿童犯罪的地理研究范式，实践上可为从源头上防控犯罪、改善儿童安全环境及制定人文关怀方案提供参考。

The crime of trafficking in children is extremely harmful and has become a major pain point for Chinese society. However, the scientific understanding that the academic community can provide is limited. From the perspective of integrating crime geography, cultural geography and time geography, we select the main source region of crime (Southwest China) as study area to do research on the formation and evolution of medium to micro scale crimes from the three main dimensions of crime: offender, victim and place of attack. First of all, by using social demography and spatial metrology to analyze the offenders and victims, we reveal the core groups, hot spots and their interrelationship. Furthermore, based on theories of crime geography, cultural geography and life course theory, we disclose the impact of human life trajectory changes and the constraints of their return to source area; Third, through integrating theories of crime geography like Social Disorganization and Routine Activity Approach etc, we explore the "blind spots and gaps" in hot spots from the dimensions of county, community, family to figure out the crime distribution mode and space prevention methods. Finally, we reveal the integrated mechanism of crime formation, evolution, impact and prevention, and construct the typical crime scenarios and put forward corresponding countermeasures. This project is expected to construct a geographic research paradigm on trafficking in children at the middle and microscopic scales in theory, and to provide reference for crime prevention & control, improvement of children's safety environment and development of humanistic care programs in practice.