水管理策略对流域水循环和农业生产力的影响研究

近几十年来海河流域可利用水资源量显著下降，水土资源配置矛盾突出，生态环境持续恶化。南水北调中线运行后，农业与生态环境将如何变化，有待深入研究。本项目以海河南系子牙-大清河流域为对象，基于VIP生态水文模型，优化和拓展生态-水文关键过程的模拟、构建水资源优化配置模块，集成流域生态-水文循环综合模拟系统。研究遥感、地面观测信息与机理模型的融合方法，反演植被光合和蒸腾过程核心参数的空间格局，提高生态水文过程的预测精度；着重探讨在南水北调引水、农业结构调整和气候变化等因素协同作用下，不同优化目标的水管理策略对流域水循环过程和农业生产力的影响。依据流域资源环境可持续发展指标，提出流域综合管理的方法和措施，为社会经济可持续发展提供科学依据。

Due to decreasing of the available water resources in Hai River Basin in the recent decades, conflictions for management of water and land resources are emergent and the ecological situations are continually deteriorating. What will happen after the completion of Midway Project of South to North Water Transfer is still demanded to further investigated. This project focuses on the Ziya and Daqing River catchments in the southern Hai River Basin. Based on the VIP ecohydrological model, simulations of the hydrological cycle related processes will optimized and extended, and a water resources management module will be developed. Then an integrated catchment ecological-hydrological cycling modelling system is developed. Fusion method between remote sensing, land surface measurements and VIP model is under explored to retrieve the principal parameter patterns of canopy photosynthesis and transpiration, aiming improving model prediction accuracy. By simulating the synergistic effects of South to North water transfer, agriculture regulation and climate change, the impacts of water management strategies on hydrological cycle and agricultural production are quantified and assessed. New scientific strategies and measures for integrated basin management will be raised by employing the emergy sustainable indices as criterions, which will be guidance of social and economic development.