城市蔓延是关系到城市-区域可持续发展的重要问题，行政区划调整作为整合行政体制和城市发展水平的重要手段，对城市蔓延的驱动和调控都会产生直接影响。本研究以“测度-空间互动-动态空间互动”为主线，以武汉城市圈为例，从城镇用地规模、布局和人口密度三个方面研制城市蔓延的测度方法，分县、县级市、中心城区、远郊区和镇级市五种类型定量分析城市蔓延的时空变化过程。其次利用这五种行政区的空间邻接关系构建多策略空间回归模型，定量挖掘行政空间外部性，同时在模型中引入空间缩放系数来调控不同层次的行政单元空间互动的强度并观测城市蔓延程度的变化。再次拓展行政区划调整前后在时间维度上的关联，构建多策略动态空间回归模型，探索城市蔓延时空变化的驱动机制，并同步引入时间缩放因子来观测城市蔓延的响应情况。最后采用情景模拟的方式来调控行政区划调整对城市蔓延的影响，提出控制城市无序蔓延，促进区域可持续发展的建议。

Urban sprawl is an important issue concerning “city-region” sustainable development. As an essential mean to coordinate administrative system and the urban development level, administrative adjustments have direct impacts on the driving force and regulation of urban sprawl. In this study, we take “measurement-spatial interaction-dynamic spatial interaction” as the workflow and choose Wuhan agglomeration as the case study area. At first, we measure urban sprawl with respect to the scale of the urban area, the spatial distribution of urban area and population density. The spatio-temporal change of urban sprawl is then analyzed quantitatively at multi-levels from county, county-level city, district in the city center, district in the suburb to village-level city. Then the multi-strategy spatial regression model is established considering the spatial adjacency among these five levels to unearth the administrative spatial externality. In the meanwhile, the spatial scale factor is introduced to contral the degree of spatial interaction and discover the change of urban sprawl. Afterwards, the dynamic spatial regression is set up with the integration of administrative adjustment to explore the driving mechanism of the spatio-temporal change of urban sprawl. The temporal scale factor is applied synchronously to observe the response of urban sprawl. In the end, scenario simulation is employed to regulate the effects of administrative adjustments on urban sprawl and the advice on controlling disordered urban sprawl and promoting the regional sustainable development is thus proposed.