气候敏感的林分生长收获模型研究

生长收获模型是森林经营决策的重要工具，但面临着如何反映气候变化影响的挑战。气候变化如何影响森林的生长和收获？如何建立气候敏感的生长收获模型来预测这种影响？项目拟以落叶松人工林为对象，基于临时样地的优势木高-年龄、土壤及地形等数据、一类清查固定样地数据、精细空间分辨率气象插值数据等，研建气候和土壤等环境因子驱动的立地指数模型、新一代气候敏感的林分生长收获模型系，包括林分断面积、蓄积、平均高、枯死、进界、生物量等生长子模型和包含间伐效应的经营子模型，模拟和预测未来气候变化情景下的森林生长收获和间伐效应。由于生长模型系内单个模型间误差的相关性、一个模型的输出是另一个模型的输入、生长数据的重复观测和层次性，拟采用联立方程组和混合效应模型等方法进行参数估计。研究结果将为适应气候变化的落叶松林经营决策提供依据。

Growth and yield models are important tools for forest management decision making, but they are challenged by climate change. How will climate change affect forest growth and yield? How to develop climate-sensitive growth and yield models for projection of future forest? The overall objective of this project is to develop climate-driven site index model and a system of climate-sensitive forest growth and yield models capable of accounting for the effects of climate change scenarios and thinning on the growth and yield of larch plantations. The system will be composed of submodels of stand basal area, volume, average height, mortality, recruitment, and biomass. The dataset used include dominant tree height-age, soil and landform from temporary plots, growth data from national forest inventory plots, fine-resolution climate data and stem ananlysis data etc. System equation and mixed effect models will be employed for parameter estimation because of the error correlation among submodels and repeated observation of tree growth. Models will provide growth and yield predictions to assist in forest management planning decisions of larch adapted to climate change in the future.