过程安全跨尺度风险表征与危机预警理论研究

化工过程系统为非线性开放系统，其风险具有自然和社会属性，风险构成要素（即风险因子）在不同层次和不同运行周期上存在尺度效应。但目前对过程安全风险的研究手段为单风险因素简单叠加，其原因为风险因子尺度效应规律不明并缺乏定量认知；且不同尺度下风险如何表征与测度尚无科学系统的理论。以致如何实现利用微观监测、检测信息跨越多个尺度对宏观危机状态进行测算和预警，即跨尺度风险表征涉及到如何穿越不同尺度约束体系的限制，成为过程安全风险研究尚未突破的难点。本项目通过系统分析过程安全风险因子的尺度效应，拟揭示其随尺度变化的规律，进而获得风险演化过程特征尺度和风险表征敏感指标。进一步建立风险信息各尺度的关联理论以实现从微观、细观到宏观各尺度间比较完整的、系统性的尺度关联，由此形成通过微观信息进行跨尺度风险表征，对宏观过程安全危机进行预警的新的理论体系，有利于提高事故防御时机和位置决策的准确性。

Chemical process system can be considered as a nonlinear open system. Its risk has natural and social attributes. The factors of risk have scale effect in different levels and different operation cycles. However at present simple superposition of single risk factors is commonly used to assess and predict system risk. There are several reasons including the law of scale effect is not clear and lacks quantitative understanding; no scientific and systematic theory to characterize and measure the risk under different time and space scales has yet been established. How to use the micro monitoring, detection information to realize safety early warning on the macro-scale (i.e. the problem of trans-scale risk characterization comes down to how to pass through the restriction of different scale constraint systems) becomes the difficult point which hasn't yet made a major breakthrough in the process safety study area. In this project, the scale effect of the risk factors will be analyzed systematically, by which the way and the dependence the risk factors change from the scales are expected to reveal. Characteristic scales and risk sensitive indexes of the risk evolution process will be determined. The relevance theory of each risk scale will be further developed to realize the complete spatial and time scale correlation from micro, meso to macro levels. In this way, the new theoretical system involving trans-scale risk characterization and macro-scale early-warning by micro information can be established, which is conducive to improve the accuracy of the timing and location of accident prevention decision.