财政补贴是一国实施产业政策的重要工具，中国同样给予企业巨额的财政补贴。本项目将对中国财政补贴的规模进行测算，研究其产生的制度根源，并评估财政补贴带来的负向溢出效应。首先，课题组基于每年70万家企业的全国税收调查数据和全样本工商登记数据，采用多种方法测算中国的财政补贴规模，并分析其结构性特征；其次，结合中国特色的GDP竞争框架和财政预算制度，从地方政府税收超收的视角分析财政补贴产生的制度根源，进而为中国财政补贴的低效率提供理论解释；接着，基于中国经济的宏观周期，考察财政补贴的逆周期特征，探讨地方政府竞争压力对财政补贴的动态影响；最后，我们将研究财政补贴对市场的扭曲作用，评估财政补贴对未补贴企业（正规企业）的负向溢出效应，并揭示这种溢出效应的作用机制，分别考察未补贴企业在要素市场和产品市场受到的挤压效应。本项目的研究将为现阶段的中美贸易争端、未来的财税体制改革和产业政策调整提供重要参考。

Governmental subsidy is an important tool for a country to implement industrial policies. China also gives huge subsidies to enterprises. This project will estimate the amount of China's governmental subsidies, explore the institutional mechanism, and analysis the negative spillover effects of subsidies. Firstly, based on the National Tax Survey Data of 700,000 enterprises and the full sample Firm Registration Data each year, we will use various methods to estimate the amount of China's governmental subsidies and analysis the structural characteristics. Secondly, considering China’s GDP competition framework and the budget system, we will explore the institutional mechanism of governmental subsidies from the perspective of local government tax over-collecting, which can explain the inefficiency of governmental subsidies in China. Thirdly, based on the macroeconomic business cycle, we will study the dynamic impact of local government competition pressure on governmental subsidies with the counter-cyclical characteristics of subsidies. Finally, we will study the distorting effect of governmental subsidies on the market, evaluate the negative spillover effect of governmental subsidies on non-subsidized enterprises, and explore the mechanism from the squeeze effect of non-subsidized enterprises in factor market and product market respectively. This project will provide important implication for the current China-US trade disputes, future fiscal and taxation system reform and industrial policy.