大西洋“电容器”效应影响太平洋准两年周期变化的过程与机理研究

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和西北太平洋副热带高压（简称为西太副高）对我国气候具有重要的影响。关于ENSO和西太副高准两年周期变化的产生原因，我们还没有完全认识清楚。以往的研究认为ENSO准两年周期变化的产生与太平洋局地过程或者与印度洋的影响有关，项目申请人在前期的研究中提出太平洋-大西洋相互作用可以产生ENSO和西太副高准两年周期变化的新观点，并将其凝练归纳成大西洋“电容器”效应，相关研究结果已经被Nature子刊Nature Communications接收待刊。本项目是申请人对前期研究工作的继续与深化，继续完善大西洋“电容器”效应的概念，揭示大西洋“电容器”效应影响太平洋准两年周期变化的物理过程和动力机制，阐明大西洋“电容器”效应和印度洋“电容器”效应在影响太平洋准两年周期变化方面的差异和在不同年代所起作用的相对贡献大小，为提高太平洋区域气候的预报能力提供新的理论依据和预报思路。

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) have major impacts on the climate variations in our country. The triggering mechanism for the quasi-biennial variability in the ENSO and WPSH has not been fully understood. Most previous studies have emphasized processes within the tropical Pacific or Indian Oceans for the generation of the quasi-biennial variability in ENSO, pointing the pacemaker to be mainly lied within the Indo-Pacific Oceans. In our recent study, we proposed an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest that the Atlantic is a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including that in ENSO and WPSH during recent decades. Our mechanism is very different from previous prevailing ideas that have emphasized the Indo-Pacific Oceans as the pacemaker for the biennial variability in ENSO. These results from our recent study have been accepted for publication in Nature Communications. This project will extend and deepen our recent studies in Nature Communications. This project is designed to improve and perfect the new concept of the Atlantic capacitor effect. Data analysis, dynamic diagnosis and numerical modeling will be carried out to reveal the dynamic process and physical mechanism for the Atlantic capacitor effect to influence the biennial variability in the ENSO and WPSH. The influences of the Atlantic capacitor effect and the Indian Ocean capacitor effect will also be compared in the roles in modulating the biennial variability in the Pacific in different decades. The results from this project will provide new scientific evidences for predicting the regional climate in the Pacific.