石油化工是易燃易爆危险品事故频发领域,近年多起严重事故深层原因都可追溯到故障安全技术存在的诸多瓶颈。本着“需求牵引，突破瓶颈”的原则，本项目面向石化过程，开展异变检测与态势动态感知、故障定位与异变反演推衍、趋势预报与灾变预测预警等3个方面7款内容的研究，提升石化过程危险态势的动态感知、灾变故障的临危决断、事故危害的预测预警等能力，破解现有的监控系统难以发现门限内异变、采样数据野值会导致频繁虚警、带扰动微弱异变苗头难以捕捉、异常变化难以长程预测，以及用数据如何实现对故障的定位与辨识等关键性技术难题。研究工作有显著的理念创新、方法创新（包括安全态势动态感知、故障危险快速定位、异变趋势长程预报、灾变风险实时预警等）和需求导向的技术创新。通过本项目研究，创新石化过程故障安全方法与技术，建立故障响应分析、反演推衍与辅助决策仿真平台，有望为石化过程安全防事故提供有力的技术支持。

Petrochemical industry is an accident-prone area involving inflammable and explosive dangerous materials. In recent years, there have been many major catastrophic accidents, and deeper causes of which can be traced to many bottlenecks in fail-safe technology. Based on the principle of “demand traction, breaking through the bottleneck”, the project is oriented to the petrochemical process, and carries out exploration and research on 7 aspects of the three aspects: abnormal detection and dynamic situational awareness, fault location and process inversion, trend prediction and disaster risk prediction and warning. The aim is to improve the dynamic perception of the safety situation of the petrochemical process, the critical decision of the process failure, and the accurate prediction of the hazard of the disaster. The research work of this project will solve the problems that the existing monitoring system is difficult to find the variation within the threshold, the wild value of the sampled data will lead to frequent false alarms, the weakly change signs are difficult to capture from dynamic data with strong disturbances, the abnormal changes are difficult predict for long periods of time, and how to achieve technical problems such as positioning and prediction of faults based on data. The research works have significant concept innovation and method innovation (including: dynamic situational awareness of safety situation, rapid location of fault hazard, long-term prediction of hetero-geneous trend, real-time warning of catastrophic risk, etc.) and demand-oriented technology integration innovation. Through this project research, the innovative petrochemical process failure safety method and technology will be obtained and the simulation platform of fault response analysis, inversion and auxiliary decision-making will be established to provide strong technical support for preventing faults and ensuring safety in petrochemical process.